College Football · resolved market
Will Miami make the College Football Playoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26a80264b61bc6cb77f899e0377d751899ff2d592ebfe862abb9662ca3396b6a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,436
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,436 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 1c | 2,158$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 12c | 1,360$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.62 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1378…b51fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,162$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 80c | 1,140$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.32 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…6b68backed Yes | 27c | 761.05$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x648e…0596backed Yes | 16c | 468.79$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d36…6ed7backed Yes | 11c | 361.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 282.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 18c | 120.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +100.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 32c | 54.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 30c | 42.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +9.3wins | +0.11per pick | 41cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 52c | 34.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Miami make the College Football Playoff?this page
- Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Arizona State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Boise State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Colorado make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Georgia make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Indiana make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Iowa State make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Ohio State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Oregon make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Penn State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will SMU make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will South Carolina make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Texas make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Tulane make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will UNLV make the College Football Playoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.