College Football · resolved market
Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a1c1646502d93b9ecb5420c0cf99f893d6b5f3228c8a0d3fc8187086d9e54cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked No | 73c | 5,772$4,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.81 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7165…ea1dbacked Yes | 17c | 5,724$981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…57edbacked Yes | 32c | 4,154$1,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,317.89 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed Yes | 33c | 3,909$1,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 17c | 1,275$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.92 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed No | 40c | 1,164$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.16 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8f51…787bbacked No | 32c | 1,014$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Yes | 12c | 1,000$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 60c | 984.67$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.76 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…01c0backed No | 20c | 895.34$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed No | 60c | 724.27$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.71 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdb67…970abacked No | 60c | 583.1$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.1 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef7…4206backed No | 75c | 499.99$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7169…9d04backed Yes | 80c | 444.15$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…1f8dbacked Yes | 22c | 433.4$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.83 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed No | 28c | 380.8$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc308…284fbacked Yes | 80c | 378.34$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 34c | 366$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.36 | 128 | 16.4%21 W · 107 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd8…7192backed No | 29c | 331.88$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +245.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa19a…2f33backed No | 55c | 250$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x340f…3cf5backed Yes | 44c | 225.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x523c…039ebacked Yes | 24c | 206$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked No | 76c | 197.42$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.42 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x335f…7670backed No | 69c | 191.13$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d5…063cbacked No | 36c | 184.39$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 68c | 142.35$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.14 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 72c | 139.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 20c | 117.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 242 | 29.3%71 W · 171 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed No | 53c | 110$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.6 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ef8…3163backed Yes | 19c | 103.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab03…fae5backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…0acbbacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 69 | 24.6%17 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d10…5b22backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c0…8d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 93.05$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 54c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…d4d5backed No | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x904a…6232backed Yes | 21c | 48.88$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 73c | 41.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.74 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…cbe3backed Yes | 58c | 35.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…d68dbacked Yes | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a60…9e08backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4a94backed Yes | 73c | 20.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…d08cbacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x461a…4030backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?this page
- Will Arizona State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Boise State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Colorado make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Georgia make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Indiana make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Iowa State make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Miami make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Ohio State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Oregon make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Penn State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will SMU make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will South Carolina make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Texas make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Tulane make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will UNLV make the College Football Playoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.