College Football · resolved market
Will Arizona State make the College Football Playoff?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5928fbf6643610bb8e8309648aec14c70268ac7a0ecac5d0dd1528ae8787335
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3b5…f7f0backed No | 62c | 1,120$693 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$693.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 51c | 714.24$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.09 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 59c | 550$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.8 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…93c4backed No | 42c | 537.59$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 39c | 499.99$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x893d…6b68backed No | 61c | 379.67$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Yes | 60c | 290.39$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.16 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 28c | 283$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.89 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Yes | 38c | 274.35$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.1 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +7.8wins | +0.19per pick | 39cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 56c | 270.21$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ec…df91backed No | 45c | 176.05$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.79 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 48c | 127.18$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad30…6e8bbacked No | 60c | 95.57$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…dbe7backed Yes | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed No | 62c | 33.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 64 | 50%32 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…bf9bbacked Yes | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd46b…5dabbacked Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…cbe3backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arizona State make the College Football Playoff?this page
- Will Alabama make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will BYU make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Boise State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Clemson make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Colorado make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Georgia make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Indiana make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Iowa State make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Miami make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Notre Dame make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Ohio State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Ole Miss make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Oregon make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Penn State make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will SMU make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will South Carolina make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will Texas make the College Football Playoff?Yes won
- Will Tulane make the College Football Playoff?No won
- Will UNLV make the College Football Playoff?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.