NFL · resolved market
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last more than 150 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x565a925916b2d230369dc8c0e6d96d5ef17e74fd2503479d660e358910b94d0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,684
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 0c | 5,490$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 196 | 9.2%18 W · 178 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,350$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 243 | 0.8%2 W · 241 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d04…8859backed Yes | 2c | 3,202$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 1,028$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 34 | 0%0 W · 34 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 3c | 547.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 74 | 9.5%7 W · 67 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5396…ded6backed Yes | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Yes | 15c | 339.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 35c | 316.22$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.53 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b20…68bdbacked Yes | 7c | 300$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…05e9backed Yes | 5c | 250$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 7c | 204.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 153 | 32%49 W · 104 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7007…00aabacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last more than 150 seconds?this page
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 100 and 110 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds?Yes won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 130 and 140 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 140 and 150 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 80 and 90 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 90 and 100 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last less than 80 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.