NFL · resolved market
Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 90 and 100 seconds?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8214c70c7acf44f96d6454bccaa8b40bef1bb376a920a6c9041d7fe13bc02a96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 5c | 1,856$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.67 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd94…0b01backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 161 | 39.1%63 W · 98 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 5c | 465.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 150 | 8%12 W · 138 L | -9.7wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -74%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 5c | 375.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 348.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 51 | 7.8%4 W · 47 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 3c | 343.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…e7c2backed Yes | 6c | 257.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…2e19backed Yes | 7c | 251.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Yes | 11c | 183.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4d…83d5backed Yes | 10c | 112.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…4569backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…626abacked No | 52c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 91 | 81.3%74 W · 17 L | +15.9wins | +0.17per pick | 64cpaid | +26%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 90 and 100 seconds?this page
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 100 and 110 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 110 and 120 seconds?Yes won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 120 and 130 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 130 and 140 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 140 and 150 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last between 80 and 90 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last less than 80 seconds?No won
- Will the Super Bowl national anthem last more than 150 seconds?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.