Serie A · resolved market
Will Fiorentina win the Serie A?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2256547b6e7e215829a5d4bd2637cb17b882c8b0cebe890582ac8becee386c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,143,669
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,091,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,143,669 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc470…a388backed Yes | 3c | 790,500$21,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,343.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79f…1249backed Yes | 3c | 765,000$20,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,655 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 0c | 95,429$459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.28 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 38,139$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.28 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefbb…65e8backed Yes | 0c | 30,748$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.74 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 25,042$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 1c | 16,428$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.52 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 13,328$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.67 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 1c | 12,851$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb54…8ca9backed Yes | 0c | 10,321$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…82cfbacked Yes | 1c | 7,096$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…80eabacked Yes | 1c | 4,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 3,820$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9488…b5a6backed Yes | 0c | 3,380$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 2,836$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d51…4355backed Yes | 2c | 2,000$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x663e…61c8backed Yes | 1c | 1,980$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 3c | 1,919$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…79d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,733$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +65.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…c7d6backed Yes | 1c | 1,673$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb7…d1c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,240$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,075$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +8.7wins | +0.24per pick | 15cpaid | +1,305.2%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x84ba…cd4abacked Yes | 2c | 906.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4707…7e5bbacked Yes | 5c | 848.06$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 3c | 833.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 788.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2c…1494backed Yes | 3c | 639.91$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 3c | 607.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Fiorentina win the Serie A?this page
- Will AC Milan win the Serie A?No won
- Will AS Roma win the Serie A?No won
- Will Atalanta win the Serie A?No won
- Will Inter Milan win the Serie A?No won
- Will Juventus win the Serie A?No won
- Will Lazio win the Serie A?No won
- Will Napoli win the Serie A?Yes won
- Will Torino win the Serie A?No won
- Will another team win the Serie A?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.