Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a0c23997f60cb2018b8e3ba9fbc13005787684c5239f2b1d81f9722865f0f2f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,328
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,096
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,328 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed No | 77c | 13,236$10,192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,044.31 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…99ffbacked Yes | 23c | 11,399$2,567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,566.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fb…97cfbacked Yes | 14c | 6,656$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.18per pick | 23cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 17c | 6,588$1,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,119.97 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e0…e89fbacked Yes | 21c | 5,246$1,102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,101.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf253…9baebacked No | 79c | 5,064$4,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,063.44 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 79c | 4,901$3,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.42 | 316 | 55.1%174 W · 142 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf103…abebbacked Yes | 21c | 4,765$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed Yes | 25c | 3,941$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 78c | 2,793$2,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.26 | 515 | 42.5%219 W · 296 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4a…8494backed No | 79c | 2,530$1,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.3 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5f…a958backed No | 79c | 2,406$1,901 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 1,646$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.29 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33d2…d976backed Yes | 3c | 1,623$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57dd…6ab4backed Yes | 23c | 1,500$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 21c | 1,427$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.77 | 272 | 35.7%97 W · 175 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 23c | 1,174$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 246 | 30.5%75 W · 171 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1256…fc6cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,118$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.06 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 78c | 1,112$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.65 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b3…246abacked Yes | 21c | 1,111$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.31 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1edcbacked Yes | 23c | 1,087$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -49%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 80c | 797.78$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.46 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd724…b805backed Yes | 17c | 606.9$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…17c0backed No | 79c | 499.99$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84b8…1193backed Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…008ebacked Yes | 21c | 476.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f5…30bcbacked Yes | 23c | 453.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…14f3backed Yes | 23c | 434.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…a817backed Yes | 6c | 387.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 22c | 301.09$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.24 | 292 | 38.4%112 W · 180 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Yes | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked No | 79c | 287$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.04 | 1,146 | 42.8%490 W · 656 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…20c6backed Yes | 22c | 249.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 22c | 240.91$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 187 | 40.6%76 W · 111 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa9…259ebacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5d…7253backed Yes | 25c | 228$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6a…d6aebacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Yes | 16c | 220$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 22c | 214.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 204 | 25%51 W · 153 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…8b87backed Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 23.7%14 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7b…0179backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa097…fba7backed Yes | 21c | 189$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7aba…7442backed Yes | 18c | 183.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 125 | 45.6%57 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7b…3c9ebacked Yes | 23c | 152.17$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b4…58c9backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 21c | 118.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Yes | 18c | 114.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Yes | 22c | 110.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…494fbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Yes | 19c | 96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…bda6backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 29cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…08f7backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -56%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5a2bbacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c4…bbfbbacked No | 78c | 84.62$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 31.5%29 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e13…e6ffbacked Yes | 16c | 80.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 79c | 73.42$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 21c | 71.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7b…75ecbacked Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…06febacked Yes | 20c | 66.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce2…7380backed Yes | 20c | 61.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde77…69dfbacked Yes | 21c | 56.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…41d2backed Yes | 24c | 53.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf01…a178backed Yes | 22c | 52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 99 | 17.2%17 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe797…2b36backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb734…502cbacked No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4093…a5dbbacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 80c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 209 | 58.9%123 W · 86 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked No | 78c | 29.14$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…175dbacked No | 79c | 21.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed No | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Sunderland AFC end in a draw?this page
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
- Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-04?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.