TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-04?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$944,074
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,002,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $944,074 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 425 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Yes61c285,973$174,063 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111,909.861172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick52cpaid+49.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked No40c200,000$79,918 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79,917.912853.6%15 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed No39c160,771$62,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62,383.469450%47 W · 47 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes62c67,514$41,695 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,818.726,04745.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L-21.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6937…085dbacked Yes65c46,280$30,144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,135.04650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Yes63c30,089$18,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,272.0435758%207 W · 150 L+12.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No37c30,000$11,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,10031947.6%152 W · 167 L+10.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+8.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked No35c24,373$8,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,526.2379650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb9…32f2backed No39c16,765$6,516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,515.7520140.8%82 W · 119 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed No35c14,951$5,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,26913834.1%47 W · 91 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Yes64c14,198$9,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,129.6927235.7%97 W · 175 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7865…4af9backed No37c13,739$5,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,103.4410236.3%37 W · 65 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes62c13,431$8,294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,136.8617958.1%104 W · 75 L+9.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Yes65c12,910$8,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,552.0428070%196 W · 84 L+49.8wins+0.18per pick52cpaid+54.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Yes59c12,374$7,301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,073.33862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.30per pick32cpaid+129.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes79c11,898$9,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,517.644454.5%24 W · 20 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes62c11,000$6,810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,189.989917.2%17 W · 82 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed No35c10,162$3,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,556.7710335%36 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Yes60c10,153$6,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,056.1210357.3%59 W · 44 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed No36c10,100$3,595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,59541437.9%157 W · 257 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Yes60c10,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,0001643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed No40c8,255$3,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,301.8121154.5%115 W · 96 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcde3…002dbacked Yes65c8,100$5,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,867.592556%14 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked No37c6,207$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.2531655.1%174 W · 142 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes67c6,162$4,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,014.444,69641.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L+21.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Yes71c5,520$3,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,579.162245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed No21c5,295$1,105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,104.8151542.5%219 W · 296 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Yes78c5,190$4,069 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,121.291,00646.6%469 W · 537 L-20.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked No37c5,000$1,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,849.9450644.3%224 W · 282 L-14.0wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6389…80babacked No40c4,800$1,920 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,920250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1be4…47c3backed No37c4,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked No6c4,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24016737.7%63 W · 104 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick31cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xac81…3fd2backed Yes64c4,000$2,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4401100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc732…097bbacked No18c3,854$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-59.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked No39c3,668$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.4115049.3%74 W · 76 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked No38c3,603$1,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,36910849.1%53 W · 55 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Yes63c3,595$2,265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,330.1230851.3%158 W · 150 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe916…4563backed Yes60c3,583$2,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,433.2410737.4%40 W · 67 L-8.8wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x2943…177abacked Yes60c3,200$1,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2802100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c6f…5fc8backed No41c3,200$1,312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,31210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No40c3,200$1,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,28037054.9%203 W · 167 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b97…5e12backed Yes64c3,194$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.714959.2%29 W · 20 L+6.6wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+41.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked Yes64c3,177$2,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.332352.2%12 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e62…ec52backed Yes64c3,078$1,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,106.46666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Yes67c2,950$1,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$970.6828736.2%104 W · 183 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes64c2,817$1,803 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,014.0830666%202 W · 104 L+57.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+76.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x101c…7df8backed Yes61c2,723$1,661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.85955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Yes65c2,705$1,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$939.451,20450.7%610 W · 594 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed No34c2,700$917 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$917.253718.9%7 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.19per pick38cpaid-63.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked No39c2,692$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,049.8724566.1%162 W · 83 L+24.5wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes65c2,679$1,736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$942.898646.5%40 W · 46 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes62c2,622$1,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.3349254.9%270 W · 222 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes61c2,606$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,006.1610848.1%52 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…ae9fbacked No41c2,500$1,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,025250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf537…f248backed Yes62c2,500$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ef4…4e4ebacked Yes78c2,418$1,879 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.064168.3%28 W · 13 L+8.2wins+0.20per pick48cpaid+73.7%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x8de5…e957backed Yes62c2,352$1,458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$893.782259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+27.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf679…edb3backed Yes62c2,242$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$852.111553.3%8 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes62c2,191$1,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$838.96450%32 W · 32 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd724…b805backed No33c2,160$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.461020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2be4…01adbacked Yes69c2,104$1,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$644.564339.5%17 W · 26 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed No33c2,074$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$688.584946.9%23 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d03…369abacked Yes61c2,014$1,236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$778.114254.8%23 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78036954.5%201 W · 168 L+50.1wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+91.7%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes63c1,950$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$717.9911828%33 W · 85 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No37c1,918$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.2321353.1%113 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16cb…2704backed No36c1,918$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.5390751.3%465 W · 442 L-1.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa874…c46abacked Yes61c1,873$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$730.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd16a…7691backed No25c1,860$465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4651866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+42.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe040…c867backed No41c1,833$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ea…380dbacked No35c1,793$628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6282548%12 W · 13 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+23.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc478…d2e2backed Yes61c1,631$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$631.434348.8%21 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes63c1,586$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$585.796440.6%26 W · 38 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfc…4194backed Yes66c1,515$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.152653.8%14 W · 12 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+19.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Yes64c1,500$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5452944.8%13 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-29.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88b0…b118backed No39c1,500$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58510751.4%55 W · 52 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed No35c1,492$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.265240.4%21 W · 31 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked No35c1,446$506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5063046.7%14 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.10per pick37cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8fec…5b6fbacked No38c1,303$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+14.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74dc…cc04backed Yes78c1,288$1,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.3915060.7%91 W · 59 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd2…f9a6backed Yes66c1,273$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.7312252.5%64 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes62c1,210$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.6830050.7%152 W · 148 L-16.5wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed No3c1,205$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.9925329.2%74 W · 179 L+11.3wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf5d…7253backed No41c1,200$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4923030%9 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd66f…a19bbacked No29c1,200$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34442043.8%184 W · 236 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf38e…8ed6backed Yes63c1,074$677 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-47.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2230…a66cbacked Yes66c1,069$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.571850%9 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No9c1,050$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.513832.6%45 W · 93 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick29cpaid+3.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked No34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34014342.7%61 W · 82 L-0.4wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed No34c999.98$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.3314854.1%80 W · 68 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa7b3…246abacked No35c998.97$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.645646.4%26 W · 30 L-4.6wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-9.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked No35c998.51$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.48742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick25cpaid+58.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes70c982.75$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.5767042.2%283 W · 387 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x33d2…d976backed No31c975$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.75520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes71c925.99$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.7761441.2%253 W · 361 L-27.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed No26c849.86$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.89733%32 W · 65 L-0.4wins0.00per pick33cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdc…9da2backed No6c845.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.83948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa65…f481backed Yes61c819.67$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.67425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick57cpaid-59%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed No23c811.99$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.7610044%44 W · 56 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes60c800$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32044939.6%178 W · 271 L+1.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.