TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Reds vs. Nationals

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Redsof Reds, Nationals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$279,718
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$289,949

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,718 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 258 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7435…a620backed Reds58c108,000$62,624 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,376.4728646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Nationals42c54,683$22,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,966.6735854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Nationals45c21,660$9,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,746.8760451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b81…57c7backed Nationals46c15,144$6,988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,988.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-41.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Nationals41c11,402$4,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,716.397950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ba4…e39abacked Reds56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,400250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Reds55c9,247$5,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,161.137450%37 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x08ad…208ebacked Nationals44c8,863$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.7221740.1%87 W · 130 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Nationals42c7,619$3,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,200.150852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4dae…f8b2backed Nationals44c6,128$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,699.9613352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Nationals47c5,605$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,630.351,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Reds54c5,575$3,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,550.912,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Reds54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3007542.7%32 W · 43 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+63.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdc5c…43b0backed Nationals44c4,775$2,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Reds54c4,400$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,02438249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Reds54c3,247$1,753 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,493.4834550.7%175 W · 170 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2373…ddfabacked Nationals42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26037446.8%175 W · 199 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c95…0a3abacked Nationals44c3,000$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,32011555.7%64 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+22.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6fac…3bbcbacked Nationals44c2,955$1,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,300.220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Reds54c2,848$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,309.922733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe85e…2aebbacked Reds53c2,804$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,304.176749.3%33 W · 34 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Reds56c2,630$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.782,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Reds54c2,500$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,149.9961346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Nationals47c2,354$1,106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,106.4933554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x532f…83ccbacked Reds56c2,341$1,311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,030.047548%36 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Nationals44c2,288$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.41,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x871f…7b97backed Nationals44c2,280$1,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,003.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Reds51c2,265$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,103.423545.1%106 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28b3…bfdbbacked Nationals44c2,020$889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$888.8825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-59.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x497c…d54ebacked Nationals46c2,000$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91024248.8%118 W · 124 L+8.3wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Nationals35c1,869$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$650.059,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd55d…2a37backed Nationals44c1,820$801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800.81030%3 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-35.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc29…c1c1backed Reds56c1,820$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.81250%6 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Nationals31c1,567$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.4754941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x372f…3b19backed Reds57c1,547$882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$665.21862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Reds71c1,411$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.879354.8%51 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe2a5…ea97backed Nationals43c1,300$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-35.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a7…e738backed Nationals43c1,300$559 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Reds64c1,281$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.4821246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Nationals47c1,116$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.6438444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Reds58c1,087$628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.271,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed2f…4314backed Nationals46c1,080$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x100c…e961backed Reds55c1,080$594 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4861100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Nationals37c1,066$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.459044.4%40 W · 50 L+4.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcbd6…c483backed Reds57c1,053$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.79650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x703b…e4d0backed Reds56c1,018$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.92875%6 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+44.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d8f…9e4dbacked Reds56c1,002$561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.884100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+77.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Nationals45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45095850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Reds54c999.95$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.986550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0df3…f15abacked Reds54c963.69$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.237940.5%32 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Nationals43c934.96$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.035,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Reds54c900.42$489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.7433852.1%176 W · 162 L+15.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Reds55c899.87$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.9419852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Nationals47c794.49$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.411,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Nationals44c720.7$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.661,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Nationals46c692.79$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.681,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Nationals2c621.36$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.435852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Nationals48c600$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.8432042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6148…acadbacked Nationals43c551.98$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.3524547.3%116 W · 129 L+21.2wins+0.09per pick39cpaid+22.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Nationals46c528.31$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.021,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Reds76c525.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.2286751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef69…a854backed Reds54c518.52$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.524461.4%27 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Nationals50c500$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25088549.7%440 W · 445 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Reds57c485.09$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.5912949.6%64 W · 65 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78c4…a801backed Nationals2c478.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0360%0 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4cb…cbfcbacked Nationals42c476.19$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003557.1%20 W · 15 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcdc…15cabacked Reds56c440.97$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.037847.4%37 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nationals46c434.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20095930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8520…2a3cbacked Nationals47c425.53$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005356.6%30 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked Nationals4c404.83$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.418762.9%25 W · 851 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick2cpaid+19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5f…84bfbacked Nationals46c388$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.481,05150.4%530 W · 521 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Nationals43c372.03$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.971,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85c1…d67bbacked Reds57c369.23$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.771625%4 W · 12 L-3.6wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-57.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfcfe…d420backed Nationals48c352.08$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16921853.2%116 W · 102 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Nationals43c316.95$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2950843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Nationals43c299.98$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.992,26145.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L+57.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b32…32c1backed Reds54c277.78$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.782450%12 W · 12 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2728…4f96backed Nationals24c274.36$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.3253448.9%261 W · 273 L-1.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x95ec…4b7ebacked Nationals45c273.51$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12338743.2%167 W · 220 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Reds53c250$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.51,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c53…c9b0backed Nationals32c246.33$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806425%16 W · 48 L-8.0wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-32.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Reds68c229.41$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.4128053.9%151 W · 129 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Nationals44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016157.1%92 W · 69 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ac3…2405backed Nationals7c227.27$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.18922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.22per pick44cpaid-65.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Nationals44c220.32$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.671,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Nationals43c220$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.61,48350.2%745 W · 738 L+5.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6981…8ac5backed Nationals44c214.16$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2318545.9%85 W · 100 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Nationals44c208.98$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.291,46644.1%647 W · 819 L+44.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Reds54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9216349.1%80 W · 83 L+12.1wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Nationals50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016947.3%80 W · 89 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4775…c57dbacked Reds54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88ae…41a4backed Nationals47c197.88$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932839.3%11 W · 17 L-3.5wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Reds54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Reds54c185.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.191,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2138…c26dbacked Reds54c185.09$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.14825%2 W · 6 L-2.5wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-55.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Reds56c179$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.7631347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe24e…350cbacked Reds57c175.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick61cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Reds58c173.45$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.452,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Reds58c171.44$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.442,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Nationals46c169$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.742,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.