Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump increase tariffs on China before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6e892114540dad45ad54826b63f8c0e7523a52e017ba1355acc7462c3377cb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $111,860
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $111,860 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c16…df3abacked No | 0c | 10,410$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 1c | 10,300$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -52%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x791e…17ddbacked No | 3c | 10,010$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.1 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 0c | 9,347$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed No | 57c | 4,176$2,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,386.23 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | -9.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 68c | 2,916$1,974 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,974.49 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 46c | 2,229$1,016 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.66 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 28c | 1,893$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,363.22 | 378 | 44.4%168 W · 210 L | +33.3wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 21c | 1,873$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.27 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…9661backed Yes | 21c | 1,308$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.44 | 168 | 54.8%92 W · 76 L | +22.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…ec66backed No | 2c | 1,263$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…7690backed Yes | 24c | 1,222$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$933.2 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef5…8898backed Yes | 58c | 1,000$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 26c | 849.98$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.99 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Yes | 74c | 740$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.83 | 76 | 46.1%35 W · 41 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…7d2bbacked Yes | 54c | 734$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 50c | 600$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.94 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 551$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78b…5d40backed Yes | 22c | 535.55$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.73 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce8f…4400backed Yes | 67c | 534.07$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed No | 24c | 506$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2e31backed Yes | 60c | 501.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 14c | 462.47$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.97 | 194 | 35.1%68 W · 126 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a0…1adbbacked Yes | 69c | 437.5$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 22c | 400$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd44e…67e2backed No | 79c | 395.7$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.85 | 54 | 51.9%28 W · 26 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 46c | 385.64$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.25 | 127 | 36.2%46 W · 81 L | -17.3wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb12d…62b4backed Yes | 29c | 340.34$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.64 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc616…c449backed No | 78c | 294.69$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd42c…8d31backed Yes | 69c | 285$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.5 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 27c | 276.51$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.21 | 172 | 38.4%66 W · 106 L | -14.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 262.86$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…25dfbacked No | 11c | 242.45$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…bfacbacked No | 60c | 227.92$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.75 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…738dbacked Yes | 72c | 220$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45a1…d31fbacked Yes | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +73.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8420…6183backed No | 6c | 200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc813…44dabacked Yes | 59c | 195.74$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked No | 71c | 190.36$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.16 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e72…9938backed Yes | 51c | 180$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 140.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.28 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…53afbacked Yes | 49c | 126.22$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 73c | 125$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.4 | 131 | 38.9%51 W · 80 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 71c | 122.7$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.58 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 14c | 120$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…534cbacked Yes | 78c | 119.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed Yes | 16c | 115.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…f40abacked No | 77c | 115.59$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.96 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 24c | 105.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.73 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x580e…a1c4backed Yes | 71c | 100.49$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8152…bfdabacked Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 100 | 56%56 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed No | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 303 | 19.1%58 W · 245 L | -20.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41ef…05bebacked Yes | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +107%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -70.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 30c | 90.6$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.1 | 84 | 19%16 W · 68 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 37c | 84.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 61c | 84.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.72 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x960c…e052backed Yes | 60c | 80$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 19c | 78.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.42 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 76c | 75.44$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 377 | 40.6%153 W · 224 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 22c | 74.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.15 | 95 | 46.3%44 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed Yes | 23c | 73.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +55.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd602…0105backed Yes | 24c | 73.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…d20cbacked Yes | 31c | 64.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30d1…4525backed Yes | 74c | 62.27$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 144 | 60.4%87 W · 57 L | +16.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +24%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 28c | 60.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.54 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…6ed0backed Yes | 58c | 57.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.27 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 35c | 53.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42c2…362dbacked Yes | 21c | 50.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.47per pick | 28cpaid | +182.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8136…0bdfbacked Yes | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x472a…9033backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45ec…3652backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c590backed Yes | 51c | 48.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed No | 42c | 45.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…fd6dbacked Yes | 73c | 39.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06af…3741backed Yes | 51c | 35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d22…f0cfbacked Yes | 71c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…6007backed Yes | 58c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344f…bd80backed Yes | 46c | 27.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 23cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8555…858bbacked No | 62c | 22.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c18…dc3cbacked Yes | 72c | 20.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf189…8e47backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36a7…4d4ebacked No | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…f63fbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -3.7wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed No | 61c | 18.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2248…a129backed No | 78c | 15.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2987…8512backed No | 79c | 15.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.