TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Orioles vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Oriolesof Orioles, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$352,396
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$375,941

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $352,396 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 389 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4dae…f8b2backed Orioles48c83,121$39,987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43,133.4513352.6%70 W · 63 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9716…378abacked Guardians52c66,745$34,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,707.3450852.6%267 W · 241 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Orioles66c34,498$22,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,703.7648254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7435…a620backed Guardians55c25,528$14,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,00028646.5%133 W · 153 L-15.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Orioles45c20,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,00053150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0229…ea6cbacked Orioles65c18,831$12,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,548.2641747.2%197 W · 220 L+15.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x61bf…647ebacked Orioles47c16,598$7,801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,797.046642.4%28 W · 38 L-6.4wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-13.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Orioles61c12,307$7,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,792.3786751.8%449 W · 418 L-0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad94…85b1backed Guardians52c11,118$5,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,781.547450%37 W · 37 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf520…0637backed Orioles53c11,019$5,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,147.8797950.2%491 W · 488 L+49.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Guardians52c9,694$5,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,063.682,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Orioles48c8,845$4,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,621.3298149.8%489 W · 492 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2165…f598backed Guardians52c8,000$4,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,1607542.7%32 W · 43 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+63.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Orioles48c7,432$3,567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,864.6438047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef1b…8697backed Guardians38c6,624$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50014042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcce…136abacked Guardians53c6,258$3,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,31729240.8%119 W · 173 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Orioles44c5,390$2,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,0361,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Guardians54c5,353$2,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,903.672,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Orioles48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,599.992733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-32.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c12…1937backed Orioles51c4,601$2,349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,251.8138444%169 W · 215 L-11.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Orioles75c4,400$3,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1002864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Guardians33c4,274$1,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.2354941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36da…e646backed Guardians44c4,090$1,782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,782.123545.1%106 W · 129 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Guardians51c3,866$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,971.9156451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb077…8fe8backed Orioles48c3,865$1,855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,009.5733554%181 W · 154 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Orioles77c3,020$2,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$682.49354.8%51 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1464…5e75backed Guardians52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,56038249.5%189 W · 193 L-1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Guardians54c2,939$1,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,583.487651.3%39 W · 37 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cbe…12bcbacked Orioles47c2,885$1,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,526.541,13248.9%553 W · 579 L-16.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Guardians53c2,685$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,422.9439041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7e08…7193backed Guardians51c2,400$1,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,223.99771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick58cpaid+18.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Guardians42c2,268$949 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$948.569,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…be32backed Guardians46c2,159$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00013946.8%65 W · 74 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Orioles47c2,128$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,127.651,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Guardians52c2,045$1,063 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,063.41,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Orioles46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb1…7c48backed Orioles47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Orioles45c2,000$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09013247.7%63 W · 69 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebd8…570cbacked Orioles80c1,928$1,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.5143946%202 W · 237 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…a990backed Guardians54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00031248.4%151 W · 161 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1752…7993backed Orioles43c1,819$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,045.2413262.9%83 W · 49 L+12.0wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+93.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Guardians54c1,800$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97215745.2%71 W · 86 L-0.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Orioles47c1,487$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$788.341,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Guardians54c1,459$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.8595930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7836…6bc4backed Guardians44c1,383$613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61311331.9%36 W · 77 L-11.1wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-22.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Guardians52c1,305$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.8419742.6%84 W · 113 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4924…f328backed Guardians46c1,248$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$578.4419239.1%75 W · 117 L-10.8wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Guardians51c1,209$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.3711449.1%56 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245c…aadabacked Orioles49c1,200$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612650%3 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed48…51f9backed Orioles49c1,200$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Guardians53c1,179$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$625.11,21340.5%491 W · 722 L-32.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…3c7dbacked Orioles48c1,136$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$590.51,20348.5%584 W · 619 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…42c9backed Guardians53c1,060$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.8740152.4%210 W · 191 L+0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed Orioles47c1,059$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$558.8528042.1%118 W · 162 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x503c…ddeabacked Guardians53c1,047$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.91757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Guardians28c1,000$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28166645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Guardians42c1,000$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41842452.1%221 W · 203 L+15.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Orioles46c999.99$463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$536.666550.8%33 W · 32 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Guardians31c967.74$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30063052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Guardians52c962.79$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50032852.4%172 W · 156 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x49f9…c621backed Guardians53c953$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.09757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Guardians53c800$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42432042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x62c6…55acbacked Orioles48c726.9$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.3810143.6%44 W · 57 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3210…5c4ebacked Orioles48c708.92$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.645156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf33…261fbacked Guardians14c706.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100629.7%6 W · 56 L-5.9wins-0.10per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Orioles78c703.89$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.981,35845.9%624 W · 734 L+41.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Guardians52c699.99$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3641,01051.2%517 W · 493 L+36.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf092…4ebabacked Guardians38c693.81$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.8619852.5%104 W · 94 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef69…a854backed Guardians52c682.69$355 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3554461.4%27 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf730…3de2backed Guardians59c680.34$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40013151.9%68 W · 63 L-6.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcca5…6d0cbacked Orioles48c566.5$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.581643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x197f…dc8dbacked Guardians49c560$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.421246.2%98 W · 114 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+23.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Guardians20c550$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.527733.6%93 W · 184 L+13.5wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Guardians47c548.7$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.895352.8%28 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0df3…f15abacked Guardians54c528.67$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2857940.5%32 W · 47 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-19.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Guardians31c527$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.026,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Orioles47c525.02$247 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.261,28947.2%609 W · 680 L-18.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b5…1989backed Orioles53c500$266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2341100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbff1…3f4fbacked Orioles60c496.95$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.785834.5%20 W · 38 L-7.3wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-31.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xfcdc…15cabacked Guardians52c473.08$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2467847.4%37 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Guardians52c450$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23428053.9%151 W · 129 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96df…4caabacked Orioles49c450$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.55648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1275…5b87backed Guardians37c450$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.9712924.8%32 W · 97 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-36.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians53c431$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.432,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Guardians52c421.06$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.895,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe98b…780dbacked Guardians53c418.23$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.2315151%77 W · 74 L-7.1wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12f1…3cd3backed Guardians34c400$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13618243.4%79 W · 103 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Orioles47c399.96$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$211.9831347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf41e…d27dbacked Guardians53c375.22$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20022546.2%104 W · 121 L-10.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc62f…f330backed Orioles47c340.43$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.4314649.3%72 W · 74 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe11c…49efbacked Orioles49c331.45$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.0412949.6%64 W · 65 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Guardians34c328.06$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5317239.5%68 W · 104 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4527…0e7fbacked Guardians51c325.63$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.27966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+15%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Orioles47c320$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.61,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Orioles49c310$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.234051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13af…d1cabacked Guardians23c305.75$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7011145%50 W · 61 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff8c…fc33backed Orioles49c304.08$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Guardians52c300$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.395850%479 W · 479 L+4.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6291…16d3backed Guardians52c286.54$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Guardians53c278.5$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.611,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.