TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

F1 · resolved market

Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
F1every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,354,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,248,117

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,354,459 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in F1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in F1
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9c66…6b66backed Yes0c1,008,767$1,901 inLost-$1,900.99283.6%1 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-91.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c336,970$881 inLost-$881.29352.9%1 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-52.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c270,750$765 inLost-$764.863417.6%6 W · 28 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-64.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Yes0c163,837$328 inLost-$327.672412.5%3 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick13cpaid-74.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351b…4d06backed Yes0c151,597$303 inLost-$303.19120%0 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0ec…6064backed Yes0c138,156$414 inLost-$414.47110%0 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1802…d00fbacked Yes0c130,452$344 inLost-$344.480%0 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cc7…8a7dbacked Yes1c112,210$673 inLost-$673.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c69,999$194 inLost-$194570%0 W · 57 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59de…de22backed Yes0c50,000$150 inLost-$15020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74b3…7032backed Yes0c37,444$75 inLost-$74.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7f6…431bbacked Yes0c21,441$43 inLost-$42.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1161…729abacked Yes0c20,000$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-49.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca16…8c10backed Yes0c16,667$50 inLost-$5070%0 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes0c15,000$30 inLost-$30270%0 W · 27 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes0c13,555$18 inLost-$18.22190%0 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c10,086$39 inLost-$39.3490%0 W · 49 L-0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes1c9,820$61 inLost-$60.9248.3%2 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick8cpaid-85.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0370…9b24backed Yes0c8,929$27 inLost-$26.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a3…2512backed Yes0c6,840$14 inLost-$13.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90dc…6b15backed Yes0c6,500$13 inLost-$1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984e…3910backed Yes0c6,016$18 inLost-$18.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11ba…b8e3backed Yes0c5,765$12 inLost-$11.5310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793e…1b1bbacked Yes0c5,500$11 inLost-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80e8…1fe4backed Yes0c5,140$10 inLost-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6301…b997backed Yes1c5,100$31 inLost-$30.720%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46b5…3620backed Yes0c5,010$10 inLost-$10.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9f…8772backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$2060%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe68a…5e25backed Yes0c5,000$20 inLost-$20120%0 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf27…786ebacked Yes0c4,193$13 inLost-$12.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7329…6768backed Yes1c3,042$44 inLost-$44.41498.2%4 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid+63.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd52…cdb2backed Yes0c2,958$12 inLost-$11.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da5…a86bbacked Yes0c2,600$11 inLost-$10.5425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick13cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70d7…62e6backed Yes0c2,500$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74f1…16a8backed Yes1c2,297$11 inLost-$11.499223.9%22 W · 70 L-0.2wins0.00per pick24cpaid-48.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46cb…c3adbacked Yes1c2,231$11 inLost-$11.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,495$11 inLost-$10.843766.9%26 W · 350 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbbcc…a48fbacked Yes1c1,318$14 inLost-$14.2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in F1 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.