Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdad60a17fb7fb12f41b3997f238a32a0ddb9d03e67255e979313ac1c043effce
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,237
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,055
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,237 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 35c | 40,000$14,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,999.98 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 65c | 27,274$17,728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,728.39 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 7,907$5,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,141.1 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 65c | 2,600$1,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,690 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf6…7ec7backed Yes | 34c | 1,565$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,032.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…b859backed No | 66c | 1,564$1,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,032.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7822…f8b8backed Yes | 34c | 1,562$531 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,030.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eae…fbaebacked No | 66c | 1,562$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78f7…2c5dbacked No | 65c | 1,320$858 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.69 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb875…68a8backed No | 65c | 680$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$442 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 36c | 420.06$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.06 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 12c | 405.32$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.18 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad6a…9dbdbacked No | 65c | 298.46$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 47c | 266.89$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.72 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 64c | 243.28$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.7 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 66c | 150.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 34c | 147.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.21 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 65c | 92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…0cdfbacked No | 71c | 76.06$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked No | 66c | 75.76$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 65c | 60.29$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked Yes | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 65c | 46.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c8…7eeebacked Yes | 36c | 39.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +180.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 67c | 36.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 42c | 33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 65c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66e0…105dbacked No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | +7.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 65c | 19.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?No won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-09-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.