Bundesliga · resolved market
Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51d18dd678c4f5dd8a835195633a1ac31ecee8e39dcaf810904a7a45c4f51f8e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,820
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,820 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 71c | 2,091$1,474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.72 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 30c | 1,771$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.32 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 1,281$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.8 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 1,079$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.33 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 73c | 1,070$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.9 | 223 | 32.3%72 W · 151 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 73c | 491.06$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.59 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece7…6979backed Yes | 28c | 357.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 34c | 258.86$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 72c | 226.99$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.56 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70e…7cd6backed No | 67c | 179.1$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.1 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +117.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 70c | 143$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.9 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 136$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 73c | 130$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.1 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 71c | 90.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 29c | 87.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 66c | 79.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.01 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8793…9dfabacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 75cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32b…522dbacked No | 73c | 17.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 73c | 16.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim vs. FC Augsburg end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FC Heidenheim win on 2025-09-27?Yes won
- Will FC Augsburg win on 2025-09-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.