Bundesliga · resolved market
Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x741f09242246f83559d2dfa7060f3410518a07f242a9a99f5481bdfd4366cc54
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,795
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,795 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a05…5c62backed Yes | 39c | 5,122$1,977 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,144.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +113.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 61c | 2,278$1,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,391.95 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 58c | 2,229$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,290.9 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 61c | 2,152$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,312.4 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 39c | 2,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,220 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +148.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 62c | 1,835$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,137.55 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 23c | 1,702$391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.59 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7346…f416backed Yes | 38c | 1,643$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,018.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f92…35a7backed No | 62c | 1,640$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,016.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 30c | 1,225$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.44 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 38c | 1,061$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.18 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54f2…d0e3backed Yes | 54c | 767.82$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 61c | 646$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.94 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed No | 38c | 637.6$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.77 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d06…d48ebacked Yes | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 39c | 410.26$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.26 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 39c | 333.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.33 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…3501backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked No | 27c | 273.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1677…1126backed No | 61c | 261.41$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.46 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bf…345abacked Yes | 38c | 250$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked Yes | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 38c | 209.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.29 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 39c | 179.49$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed No | 62c | 168.3$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.37 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f1…9599backed Yes | 38c | 157.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4835…8f59backed Yes | 39c | 151.28$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 66cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb93…63d9backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e3…1962backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Yes | 63c | 109.6$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0909…91cabacked Yes | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 43 | 69.8%30 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 39c | 96.76$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.03 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 61c | 96$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x680b…ad75backed Yes | 64c | 78.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.34 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 69c | 64.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb5…6530backed Yes | 37c | 62.32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed Yes | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x051d…6980backed No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3433…13bfbacked Yes | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb4…0c34backed Yes | 68c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe37e…0009backed No | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 38c | 53.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…0fedbacked No | 40c | 52.51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Yes | 42c | 49.37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c80…6f38backed Yes | 39c | 46.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -34%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb7…04d8backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0683…8689backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4809…eec2backed Yes | 39c | 35.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 47c | 32.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 62c | 31.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…a39fbacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.31per pick | 53cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 61c | 29$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 185 | 45.9%85 W · 100 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 61c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d70…b17ebacked Yes | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x20f7…635ebacked Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…cd54backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5226…3f8abacked Yes | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.