Bundesliga · resolved market
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84fc03261c1854035d1da53f8b7a688514d6c7a52b20c0f07839e8288bbab86d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,214
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,190
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,214 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked No | 65c | 10,554$6,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,704.91 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 35c | 9,963$3,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,487.05 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Yes | 24c | 2,877$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.97 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 24c | 2,836$668 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.43 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 38c | 2,641$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 73c | 2,571$1,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.14 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +9.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 62c | 2,195$1,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5832…3dacbacked No | 64c | 1,016$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 79c | 1,002$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.22 | 282 | 41.5%117 W · 165 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Yes | 36c | 917.2$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.19 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1464…5e75backed Yes | 37c | 599.56$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.74 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 21c | 474.8$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.23 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked Yes | 3c | 400$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +285.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 63c | 375.57$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.3 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf778…2f09backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 63c | 249.99$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.5 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 35c | 199.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked No | 65c | 153.83$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Yes | 38c | 135$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 63 | 60.3%38 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…ba40backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb125…69ebbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 64c | 99.81$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked No | 63c | 49.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.5wins | +0.22per pick | 40cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…df1bbacked No | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…7f7bbacked No | 64c | 43.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45a4…5eb3backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 61cpaid | +44%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d27…c460backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 243 | 22.2%54 W · 189 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2025-09-27?this page
- Will RB Leipzig win on 2025-09-27?Yes won
- Will VfL Wolfsburg vs. RB Leipzig end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.