China Taiwan · resolved market
China bans US films in April?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7cc227d75f966bbc3f45d065f43f855fbdb545b3854eb36910d4b06295edb86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,774
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,531
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,774 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x18aa…f6ecbacked Yes | 6c | 4,542$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0d…fec9backed Yes | 4c | 2,676$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 9c | 2,200$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | -7.5wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbe…2cf3backed Yes | 9c | 2,071$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,023$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…76ddbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 10c | 1,342$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.37 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4947…d6fabacked Yes | 6c | 1,182$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 5c | 1,141$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 16c | 1,100$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…ac5fbacked Yes | 9c | 1,053$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…b6abbacked Yes | 8c | 1,036$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 8c | 1,010$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcca…aebabacked Yes | 4c | 752.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 15c | 524.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.05 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x933b…ba50backed Yes | 4c | 513.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 4c | 500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Yes | 10c | 495$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…248fbacked Yes | 4c | 494.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c46…a137backed Yes | 4c | 473.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed Yes | 15c | 449.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 19c | 418$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcab…9c4cbacked Yes | 2c | 417.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…349ebacked Yes | 6c | 350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Yes | 10c | 312.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…325ebacked Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27a…1d05backed Yes | 17c | 210$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…86b5backed Yes | 8c | 207.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -52.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3977…2c6fbacked Yes | 14c | 163.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 158.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 127 | 7.9%10 W · 117 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd09…abc3backed Yes | 10c | 151.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff4b…d019backed Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae06…77e1backed Yes | 20c | 134$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed No | 80c | 111$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2880…fa70backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 79c | 99.12$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.36per pick | 42cpaid | +103.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 15c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 69c | 83.63$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba5…4f56backed Yes | 20c | 82.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…224dbacked Yes | 19c | 76.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc619…a8c1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 73c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.71 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.