China Taiwan · resolved market
Will Trump Leave China on May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x177082122b8f92c51230dd1d315b8ca8ea44929ae6bf06622c41846ac28dccb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- China Taiwanevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,191
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in China Taiwan is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd675…5cdebacked No | 0c | 21,000$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…2d3bbacked No | 0c | 13,952$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977b…0f75backed No | 0c | 7,350$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 1c | 3,994$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6408…d5c6backed No | 0c | 3,760$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 3,165$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.29 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9f…e03bbacked No | 2c | 2,719$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5f…c035backed No | 1c | 2,168$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb3…fbf3backed No | 3c | 1,821$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 1c | 1,083$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12e4…dfc2backed No | 2c | 736.12$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +5.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +683.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 2c | 613$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 3c | 577.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 3c | 564.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 37 | 0%0 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ca…cd59backed No | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 4c | 300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 8c | 149.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in China Taiwan and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump Leave China on May 15?this page
- Will Trump Leave China after May 18?No won
- Will Trump Leave China on May 13?No won
- Will Trump Leave China on May 14?No won
- Will Trump Leave China on May 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.