Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x55272a49b41f3201fc784bbd54e1710a9de5ead4f00c2563570163172f009be7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,241
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,241 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ad7…0971backed No | 1c | 1,130$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 763.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed No | 74c | 458.19$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.81 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 412.29$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.03 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 58c | 333$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.64 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 7c | 251.93$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 5c | 231.6$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 52c | 228.17$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.07 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 30c | 216.86$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.64 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 15c | 208.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 16c | 205.1$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ea…c587backed No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 44cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed Yes | 31c | 196.17$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 48c | 184.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed Yes | 17c | 177$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.91 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 167.53$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…dd88backed Yes | 31c | 165.8$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.07 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 38c | 157.96$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.51 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 21c | 152.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.43 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 33c | 149.99$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.77 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 32c | 147.75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.47 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 68c | 147.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.47 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 140.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.81 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 18c | 134.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 58c | 121.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 120.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 73c | 102.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 102.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.16 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d40…7b4fbacked Yes | 23c | 102.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.02 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a9…d0e4backed Yes | 40c | 101.01$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.98 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 50c | 99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 26c | 96.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.13 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 18c | 90$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 16c | 89.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.34 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked Yes | 22c | 89.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.53 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 35c | 84.53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.08 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 44c | 81.51$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.25 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed Yes | 26c | 79.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.54 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8112…dfb4backed Yes | 68c | 73.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc70a…d065backed No | 75c | 72.51$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.38 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 24c | 72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.49 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 66c | 70.63$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.31 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 30c | 66.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 25c | 62.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 62.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…d684backed Yes | 32c | 51.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed No | 65c | 49.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 59c | 48.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 24c | 45.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3eb…b6bebacked Yes | 24c | 44.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.88 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 67c | 44.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.01 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 33c | 44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x131d…2a50backed No | 37c | 43.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 103 | 35.9%37 W · 66 L | -15.3wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 73c | 42.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5986…f763backed Yes | 67c | 41.51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 30c | 39.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 42c | 39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.58 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…06c6backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 61c | 34.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ed…98a8backed Yes | 73c | 32.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 32.2$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 42c | 31.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 67c | 30.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 76c | 26.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 69c | 21.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 72c | 20.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 18.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1479…eb67backed No | 68c | 18.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x358b…3722backed Yes | 67c | 16.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 525 | 33.1%174 W · 351 L | +21.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.