Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x18b622f02b81c014fc5a0a6b368f20c706fef4d14fd5338ff6178ee46ca302cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,440 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 97 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,130$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 51c | 748.53$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.77 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 66c | 491.76$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.28 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.97$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 38c | 378.66$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.16 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 349.52$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.49 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 71c | 335.02$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.74 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 59c | 298.98$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.57 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x53a0…1907backed Yes | 4c | 256.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 73 | 9.6%7 W · 66 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 69c | 236.14$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.57 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 64c | 196.16$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.62 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 59c | 186$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.8 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 14c | 169.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.62 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 160.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 67c | 157$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.27 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 34c | 151.14$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.39 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 62c | 150$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.1 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 46c | 149.03$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 145.68$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13e6…c310backed Yes | 32c | 142.5$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.7 | 159 | 11.3%18 W · 141 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 41c | 141.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.06 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5c…cdf7backed No | 54c | 130.35$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.35 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 120.26$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…a0e8backed No | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.24 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 44c | 119$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 27c | 117.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed No | 65c | 115.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 39c | 108.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 51c | 97.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.74 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked Yes | 49c | 97.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c00…1c78backed Yes | 32c | 94.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 153 | 30.7%47 W · 106 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 28c | 89.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 56c | 87.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 30c | 81.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…4161backed Yes | 29c | 81.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 56c | 81.05$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…33a6backed No | 62c | 72.92$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 64c | 65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 49c | 64.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 33c | 56.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 46c | 54.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 19c | 53.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 38c | 52.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc57…ce71backed No | 38c | 52.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +6.1wins | +0.34per pick | 38cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…6e4abacked No | 38c | 51.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 68c | 51.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 60c | 49.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ab…823bbacked No | 50c | 47.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 43.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 72c | 41.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 40.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…66f9backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -8.9wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 38.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a15…dfb4backed No | 66c | 38.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26e7…40a6backed Yes | 45c | 36.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 71c | 36.32$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.57 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59b4…78c9backed No | 71c | 35.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 69c | 35.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 62c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 41c | 34.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ccf…9ea3backed No | 68c | 33.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.86 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 60c | 33.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 65c | 31.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 64c | 31.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 56c | 30.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 34c | 29.85$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.7 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2423…4137backed Yes | 38c | 29.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 71c | 27.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 72c | 27.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 27.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 65c | 26.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 72c | 26.85$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 39c | 26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 47c | 25.54$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 70c | 24.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ec…40edbacked Yes | 61c | 24.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -3.2wins | -0.24per pick | 63cpaid | -29%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b25…51eebacked Yes | 66c | 22.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 76c | 21.3$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…5aa7backed No | 73c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x246d…e1b2backed No | 66c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 60 | 71.7%43 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c0…8032backed No | 68c | 16.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -4.0wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked No | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed No | 76c | 14.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 52°F or higher on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 42-43°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 12?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.