Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa0109824bc507d51d2963387c85fb015392bbd54656c2e58b784a49642dd86f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,458
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,458 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ce8…f5b0backed No | 0c | 16,500$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3949…dffdbacked No | 0c | 13,975$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 69c | 2,376$1,628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$748.24 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 15c | 929.98$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.65 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 42c | 879.42$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.01 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 22c | 581.27$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.03 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb9…44cfbacked Yes | 24c | 558.99$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 7c | 535$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 79c | 479.91$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.07 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x34c6…ec31backed Yes | 18c | 236.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.45 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +2.4wins | +0.13per pick | 19cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 8c | 199.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 21c | 199.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.24 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked No | 7c | 178$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +190.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 6c | 167.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 144.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed No | 78c | 134.69$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.42 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed Yes | 30c | 128.72$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 120.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 55c | 105.65$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a20…0efdbacked Yes | 20c | 84.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 44c | 81.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…1701backed No | 14c | 80.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 351 | 33.6%118 W · 233 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…c6dcbacked No | 40c | 76.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 67cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…9b4ebacked Yes | 21c | 70.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 49 | 61.2%30 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 34c | 54.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 79c | 51.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed No | 79c | 50.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed Yes | 25c | 50.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d8…1db0backed Yes | 24c | 49.9$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.96 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 35c | 48.74$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2e…c9e1backed No | 36c | 40.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 204 | 31.9%65 W · 139 L | -14.5wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1f…2dd0backed No | 78c | 36.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 69cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…1f0abacked Yes | 68c | 35.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4cf…78c4backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 72 | 61.1%44 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed Yes | 76c | 25.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefca…fda8backed Yes | 49c | 20.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2368…1582backed Yes | 49c | 20.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 79c | 17.44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252b…dfc9backed No | 75c | 13.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 76c | 13.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 76c | 13.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 65°F or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 70-71°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 74-75°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.