Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2f245de7979031f1dc8d05099d35412dd3d4080aceec4f530e1653d7c7fdae57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,769
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,150
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,769 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab4…fdf0backed Yes | 31c | 2,950$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,032.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +124.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077d…5208backed No | 69c | 1,480$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a3c…0739backed No | 69c | 1,470$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 17c | 691.5$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$575.57 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x261c…8b76backed No | 72c | 410$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 78c | 344.59$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 61c | 297.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 33c | 289.18$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.18 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 11c | 281.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd93…6e73backed Yes | 75c | 278.06$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.37 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 30c | 270.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.68 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 4c | 238.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.78 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 28c | 200$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.6 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 45c | 179.15$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.78 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 71c | 152.37$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed No | 24c | 144.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 31c | 137.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 61c | 127$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04f3…0ffabacked No | 21c | 110.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 19c | 98.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed Yes | 41c | 82.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 81.78$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 30c | 80$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.08 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 30c | 76.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 23c | 72.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 76c | 65.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf211…385dbacked Yes | 18c | 63.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed No | 40c | 63.75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 55.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 28c | 54.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x275d…331abacked Yes | 29c | 51.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 76c | 50.02$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x129c…0085backed Yes | 73c | 47.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 66c | 45.63$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 44c | 45.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 44.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 34c | 44.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Yes | 69c | 43.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 88 | 61.4%54 W · 34 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 34c | 43.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 39c | 38.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.13 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 69c | 36.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 49c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 65c | 30.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3361…e18ebacked Yes | 49c | 26.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 49c | 24.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 73c | 24.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c69…9867backed Yes | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc6…b32cbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e9…e288backed Yes | 73c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 18.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 72c | 17.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.