Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x17bf2d8a7f40c45b302defff2e2e72a33e44b663c824d06dc310e55c7cea29b0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x46b4…72e9backed Yes | 6c | 916.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 20c | 625.15$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.79 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 549.69$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.01 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84b2…ecffbacked Yes | 6c | 463.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 377.54$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 314.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 245.83$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 24c | 242.32$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 11c | 192.11$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 25c | 145.06$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.65 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 12c | 137.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 78c | 124.53$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 121.59$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 33c | 118.42$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.19 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 104.62$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 18c | 104$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 64c | 99.98$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 93.75$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x343f…bb4dbacked No | 66c | 56.03$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 51.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 23c | 48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 76c | 44.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 64c | 39.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…076abacked Yes | 28c | 38.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6862…001cbacked Yes | 36c | 33.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e8…b19bbacked Yes | 36c | 33.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df4…1313backed No | 69c | 33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae24…3d52backed No | 66c | 32.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 65c | 32.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…fc3dbacked No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 277 | 56%155 W · 122 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…7d2ebacked No | 67c | 29.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 71c | 28.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 28.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 73c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 70c | 26.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed Yes | 39c | 25.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…0fe0backed No | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 66c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb064…aae4backed No | 66c | 21.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 66c | 21.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 72c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.46 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.