Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x366415f03eedbe98bf4193fa08ab65b7a48bbba0d02f2e059f0af7d091e7cd38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,124
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84b2…ecffbacked Yes | 8c | 986.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 24c | 755.85$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.8 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 6c | 604.58$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 408.13$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 13c | 322.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.03 | 591 | 21.5%127 W · 464 L | -30.1wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 315.57$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 21c | 272.56$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.53 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 24c | 189.76$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee7a…b68dbacked Yes | 7c | 152.67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 25c | 151.76$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.23 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd75…d07ebacked Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 154 | 33.8%52 W · 102 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa20c…451abacked Yes | 11c | 136.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 80 | 16.3%13 W · 67 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 16c | 128.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…ab83backed Yes | 10c | 108.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +66%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…e041backed Yes | 27c | 97.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.49 | 99 | 27.3%27 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 94.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 33c | 84.67$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.54 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0b…10cbbacked Yes | 30c | 81.44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 69c | 74.89$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.06 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 23c | 73.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 22c | 62.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.04 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed Yes | 33c | 61.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 34c | 59.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e97…4828backed Yes | 22c | 56.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf607…7ca0backed Yes | 33c | 42.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…b4a9backed Yes | 36c | 42.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadbe…6cecbacked No | 71c | 42.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 35c | 30.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf9…5211backed No | 78c | 24.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9740…2eeebacked No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…0fe0backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd865…4778backed No | 78c | 20.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 71c | 20.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.71 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2de…ff4fbacked No | 67c | 14.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -1°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C or below on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 0°C on March 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on March 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C or higher on March 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.