Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd877ab30cd42433bfb538b90ff4c254ec2c70279d49942b83b49f58f337b3e32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 34c | 1,329$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.06 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 75c | 735.04$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.15 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 459.57$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.42 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 22c | 255.09$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 15c | 182.09$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 29c | 172.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 72c | 171.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.35 | 299 | 22.7%68 W · 231 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 16c | 171$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 64c | 160.37$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 69c | 158.26$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 70c | 138$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.75 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 61c | 114.86$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 111.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 103.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…3de8backed Yes | 23c | 98.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 685 | 21.5%147 W · 538 L | +12.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e83…5d73backed Yes | 43c | 81.63$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 30c | 75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.48 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 30c | 73.25$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe7…6aa1backed Yes | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.68 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 24c | 67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ed…bb68backed Yes | 29c | 51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 71c | 43.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 68c | 41.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 68c | 36.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 47c | 34.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 66c | 28.6$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 71c | 28.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 80c | 26.86$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 25.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 78c | 21.64$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 61c | 19.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.41 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 74°F or higher on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on March 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.