Earnings · resolved market
Will Tesla say "Cybertruck" during earnings call?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x54d937b3b8d4fda4e1e030b72283224fdc765e618b06dfa47a7da6ffb019f804
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,275
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed Yes | 68c | 4,823$3,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,544.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0490…c81fbacked No | 32c | 3,333$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,066.55 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked No | 32c | 2,000$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3e…37efbacked Yes | 50c | 1,600$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.39 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +90.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 51c | 1,118$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb57a…5cfcbacked Yes | 67c | 846.88$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 34c | 580.9$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.41 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdde3…e797backed Yes | 67c | 245.16$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 69c | 145.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 52c | 144.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.06 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Yes | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed Yes | 65c | 136$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 49c | 112.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d3…0dfabacked Yes | 66c | 97.06$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 64c | 71.74$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…a496backed No | 36c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…aa0ebacked Yes | 70c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 65cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 72c | 62$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.3wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 37c | 50.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b7…ece8backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd96…e623backed Yes | 59c | 46.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…d189backed Yes | 57c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6aef…ca62backed Yes | 55c | 38.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78d9…70f6backed Yes | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a5f…a8a0backed Yes | 50c | 30.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed No | 44c | 27.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 50c | 27.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 73c | 24.49$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Yes | 50c | 20.01$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tesla say "Cybertruck" during earnings call?this page
- Will Tesla say "China" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla say "Full Self-Driving" or "FSD" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla say "Gigafactory" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla say "Loyalty" during earnings call?No won
- Will Tesla say "Refinery" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla say "Regulator" or "Regulation" or "Regulatory" during earnings call?Yes won
- Will Tesla say "Robotaxi" during earnings call?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.