Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf6d8e3b3460e2ae2456a9c4d20405061b0ae51075a17b2004f214783fa4c794
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,377
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4fa7…30b9backed Yes | 31c | 709.91$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b3…501cbacked Yes | 32c | 363.48$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.08 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 67c | 312.55$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.95 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0b…df89backed Yes | 33c | 300.78$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8354…09b7backed No | 56c | 269.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e74…93bcbacked Yes | 43c | 199.87$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 115.44$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1e…2f5abacked Yes | 13c | 114$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…a578backed Yes | 23c | 110.43$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe45e…5ca7backed Yes | 36c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 29c | 61.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 64c | 42.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 40c | 36.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 52c | 35.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb88a…2397backed Yes | 59c | 34.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7397…1968backed Yes | 32c | 31.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d2f…45b9backed No | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10d6…9a11backed No | 70c | 14.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 75c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.1% and 2.3% in December?this page
- Will monthly inflation be 3.0% or higher in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 1.5% and 1.7% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 1.8% and 2.0% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.4% and 2.6% in December?No won
- Will monthly inflation be between 2.7% and 2.9% in December?Yes won
- Will monthly inflation be lower than 1.5% in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.