Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc28bdf0e87c4435449bafb4bd8f1d6a65904a4efa1a768d0a32f22e8ae851035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,405 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3d67…2b6abacked Yes | 14c | 517.19$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 468.16$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 75c | 453.48$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.76 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 6c | 399.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 79c | 397.74$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.94 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 25c | 372.04$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.33 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 24c | 264.89$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.75 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 258$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 76c | 254.51$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 248.49$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked Yes | 25c | 242.12$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.53 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b7…9cfabacked Yes | 23c | 216.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 22c | 192.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 184.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 19c | 174$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…55a0backed Yes | 18c | 163.44$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 13c | 154$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaeb…8032backed No | 75c | 148.41$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 28c | 144.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 20c | 137.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06f9…c7bdbacked Yes | 11c | 133.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 25c | 127.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.48 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 12c | 124.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf60…79c5backed Yes | 27c | 121.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 21c | 117.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 27c | 110.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…bdf5backed Yes | 22c | 108.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.93 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -41%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 24c | 104.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 11c | 103.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Yes | 20c | 101.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 75c | 100.4$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.4 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 13c | 99.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf19d…9afabacked Yes | 18c | 99.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…4161backed Yes | 12c | 99.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 27cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 15c | 97.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe34…8ee7backed Yes | 30c | 92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 163 | 55.2%90 W · 73 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6221…44edbacked Yes | 21c | 84.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 82.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 16c | 80.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 79.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed No | 77c | 71.17$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed No | 78c | 64.09$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 78c | 63.13$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 21c | 60.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0494…631fbacked Yes | 29c | 53.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x997f…000abacked No | 76c | 52.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2204…2c95backed Yes | 23c | 48.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 45.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…33a6backed No | 79c | 44.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 75c | 43.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 75c | 43$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 74c | 38.98$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 74c | 35.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b9…3377backed No | 74c | 27.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.07 | 140 | 71.4%100 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c14…35b8backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 71c | 22.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x324f…15b1backed No | 75c | 21.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…b68bbacked No | 70c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 62cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 74c | 19.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42fe…ac0fbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.