Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e6de3c623d04a32010e59260d5668457912b3efb3f99da268e3ad88dc6011cb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,497
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,497 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 876.23$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.11 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 789.15$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.02 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…2dafbacked Yes | 12c | 518.56$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.96 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 17c | 494.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.47 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 9c | 399.98$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…8776backed Yes | 10c | 380.53$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 9c | 359.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.86 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 315.92$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 4c | 245.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 5c | 235.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 14c | 208.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.58 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 12c | 183.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 12c | 154$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…6bb8backed No | 78c | 128.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 19c | 126.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a75…e7d4backed Yes | 25c | 114.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 25.6%10 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 15c | 113.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f7…63f2backed Yes | 19c | 111$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 10c | 105.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 100.22$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.2 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 99.95$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27c…b5cbbacked Yes | 22c | 95.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…3d64backed No | 78c | 94.66$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.22 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 67c | 74.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 68c | 72.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea4c…0e79backed No | 72c | 69.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4100…07e8backed Yes | 16c | 68.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…d2acbacked Yes | 22c | 67.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3415…9d95backed Yes | 18c | 66.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…06c6backed Yes | 26c | 58.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 77c | 57.21$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.16 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x998a…745bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x720a…0a49backed No | 80c | 39.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 118 | 78.8%93 W · 25 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 79c | 30.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…7f5abacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc0…1843backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 143 | 72%103 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.