Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f1c3776281e517a0c9cad977d5b491040416470a7baef9f83e4508e52753a0e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,971 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f5b…e747backed Yes | 43c | 1,203$523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$523.37 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 35c | 911.06$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.04 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 61c | 783.45$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.07 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 33c | 658.09$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.12 | 6,854 | 39.4%2,698 W · 4,156 L | +266.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1418…6fefbacked Yes | 50c | 607.6$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.58 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -4.4wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 55c | 586.23$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.65 | 2,505 | 69.7%1,746 W · 759 L | +77.7wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 45c | 580.69$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.25 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 23c | 501.48$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.78 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 457.38$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.79 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaabb…5554backed Yes | 49c | 432.33$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.7 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 400$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…1aa6backed No | 62c | 399.7$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.92 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 47c | 359.13$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.12 | 434 | 37.8%164 W · 270 L | +6.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 38c | 356.3$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.61 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 54c | 273.57$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 3,111 | 49.6%1,544 W · 1,567 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 55c | 250$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.13 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 60c | 247.57$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c3…6ca1backed Yes | 29c | 239.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 205.62$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.52 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…0a0bbacked No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 39c | 198.9$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…486dbacked Yes | 46c | 174$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 28c | 166.78$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.82 | 550 | 25.3%139 W · 411 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 46c | 154$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.93 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…1b93backed Yes | 46c | 153$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 49c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed Yes | 47c | 145.9$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.13 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 34c | 141.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eed…d8ffbacked Yes | 57c | 134.43$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.86 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 38c | 132$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.95 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 79c | 123.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 27c | 114.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 57c | 113.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.32 | 429 | 45.5%195 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…f66ebacked Yes | 45c | 110.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 55c | 109.14$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.88 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 56c | 105.54$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 71c | 105.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.27 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 102.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.02 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 30c | 101.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 3,916 | 23.2%910 W · 3,006 L | +124.9wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 50c | 98.04$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.76 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 95.82$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33b6…597bbacked Yes | 38c | 93.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.29 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 53c | 93.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 36c | 93.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf882…6c3dbacked Yes | 43c | 92.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 13cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 39c | 92.49$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.86 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 210 | 24.3%51 W · 159 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…cf0fbacked Yes | 48c | 82.39$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.76 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 80.58$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 26c | 80$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 55c | 77.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0a…bb29backed Yes | 20c | 76.68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 61c | 74.26$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.21 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 48c | 72.8$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 1,843 | 27.5%506 W · 1,337 L | +23.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 22c | 69.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 78c | 69.09$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…fbfcbacked No | 54c | 69$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4fa…7eedbacked No | 54c | 68$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 74c | 65.67$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…f560backed Yes | 35c | 65.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.12 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 62c | 64.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…06c6backed Yes | 25c | 60.67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 290 | 29%84 W · 206 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d2…0ecfbacked Yes | 20c | 59.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 205 | 46.8%96 W · 109 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf01…79b6backed No | 51c | 59.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.31 | 86 | 65.1%56 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 62c | 57.72$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.15 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 44c | 56.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed No | 79c | 56.5$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 135 | 23%31 W · 104 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed Yes | 32c | 56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3d…2c18backed No | 59c | 55.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6188…3373backed No | 54c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0734…9cdabacked No | 54c | 51.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64bd…82cfbacked Yes | 26c | 48.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 187 | 61%114 W · 73 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…33a6backed No | 72c | 48.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf516…1ea1backed Yes | 28c | 48.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 48.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 3,028 | 31.3%949 W · 2,079 L | +40.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034f…ca6bbacked No | 76c | 46.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x884f…c132backed Yes | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.8wins | -0.17per pick | 49cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…90c3backed Yes | 42c | 45.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 40c | 45.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf845…7c31backed No | 67c | 43.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 89 | 57.3%51 W · 38 L | +7.9wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 28c | 43.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked No | 65c | 42.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 59c | 42.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2423…4137backed Yes | 47c | 42.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14c2…7105backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 57c | 40.43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.27 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 63c | 39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.43 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 43c | 38.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaaa…f641backed No | 75c | 38.15$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes | 39c | 38.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 37.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 13?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.