Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe527ce05ca8a033c3d89b3094192958c2cf9e93b055410f192391789eaa228f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,034
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,034 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa785…acb6backed No | 54c | 1,096$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.64 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | -8.7wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 45c | 871.99$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 13c | 518.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 46c | 494.27$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.57 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 59c | 473.43$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.85 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c25…87c0backed Yes | 67c | 386.06$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.61 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 75c | 380.04$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.77 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 329.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.31 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…cc41backed Yes | 29c | 269.07$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.37 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 64c | 268.02$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.92 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8323…6bb8backed No | 48c | 242.68$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 61c | 213.33$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 203.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 32c | 198$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.83 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…86cbbacked Yes | 75c | 167.06$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.03 | 26 | 73.1%19 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b40…96e3backed No | 11c | 155.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 522 | 45%235 W · 287 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 25c | 154$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.7 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11dc…fac5backed No | 38c | 140$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…d684backed Yes | 37c | 138.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.2 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 51c | 131.78$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.22 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 129.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.29 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 32c | 129.48$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 75c | 118.18$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.05 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 31c | 112.75$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.82 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 75c | 110.85$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.57 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 69c | 109$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 127 | 44.9%57 W · 70 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 41c | 99.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.32 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed No | 71c | 98.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.28 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a49…8d1fbacked Yes | 36c | 92.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 22c | 90.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.22 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 22c | 84$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 26c | 83.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.72 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…f01ebacked Yes | 53c | 80.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 63c | 79$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.57 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ced…7ce8backed No | 57c | 79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 137 | 48.2%66 W · 71 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7280…65d2backed Yes | 27c | 72.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.12 | 220 | 23.6%52 W · 168 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 24c | 71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.93 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…f66ebacked Yes | 29c | 68.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 35c | 61.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…296ebacked Yes | 43c | 58.6$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 36c | 55.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d07…6bf3backed Yes | 29c | 55.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.64 | 196 | 17.9%35 W · 161 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…dd14backed Yes | 27c | 55.03$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 24c | 54.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 20c | 53.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4d…06c6backed Yes | 28c | 53.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…1994backed Yes | 46c | 53$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 37c | 52.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8e…5d6abacked Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.99 | 95 | 20%19 W · 76 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d84…4ff1backed No | 74c | 49.86$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 295 | 58%171 W · 124 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 44c | 49.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.88 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc323…4408backed No | 75c | 49.28$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.84 | 335 | 67.5%226 W · 109 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.6 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…0fadbacked Yes | 29c | 47.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…875bbacked No | 69c | 45.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 67cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 68c | 43.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa238…babcbacked Yes | 47c | 40.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 67c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 78c | 38.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…260cbacked Yes | 42c | 36.36$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…b6c5backed No | 73c | 34.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 32c | 32.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 80c | 31.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8a…edf9backed No | 61c | 28.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 76 | 38.2%29 W · 47 L | -8.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf618…6a90backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa793…9059backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x243f…589ebacked No | 73c | 23.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 68 | 66.2%45 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e7…3de8backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca93…df79backed No | 70c | 17.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe36c…375abacked No | 74c | 16.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 70c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 70c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e70…50ebbacked No | 75c | 13.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 315 | 67%211 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 46-47°F on March 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 43°F or below on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 44-45°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 48-49°F on March 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.