Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x155cbf755b9394a5124aea5f7230349c67ea9014a647e2ee66346da954f57784
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,624
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,624 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 9c | 1,471$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…0ab4backed Yes | 34c | 705.25$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.57 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 60cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 12c | 670.84$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 3c | 557.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 5c | 480.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 76c | 457.06$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4d…507fbacked Yes | 9c | 431.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 4c | 387$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 374.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 70c | 331.03$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e5…931abacked Yes | 9c | 301.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe979…0c8bbacked Yes | 6c | 282.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.21 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 80c | 255.37$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 6c | 233.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72d7…a3ddbacked Yes | 20c | 205$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 216 | 41.7%90 W · 126 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 8c | 199.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.37 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 27c | 109.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678d…bce9backed No | 66c | 103.87$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24fe…3419backed Yes | 10c | 99.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 212 | 35.8%76 W · 136 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 24c | 94.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 36c | 88.38$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 135 | 31.9%43 W · 92 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 19c | 88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30e…b2f1backed Yes | 12c | 87.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…12c2backed Yes | 23c | 85.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 75c | 79.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 18c | 68.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 47.91$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa019…7935backed No | 64c | 41.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 53 | 75.5%40 W · 13 L | +5.7wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 39.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 75c | 35.11$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5f…a235backed No | 72c | 32.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 111 | 48.6%54 W · 57 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 24.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7658…e770backed No | 64c | 18.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on March 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 59°F or below on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 78°F or higher on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 60-61°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 62-63°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 64-65°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 66-67°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on March 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 72-73°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 74-75°F on March 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 76-77°F on March 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.