Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd9feedf6ddfc4e4c856849d88b50b2d0aa8315cd04bc50667581ccf76d0a433a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,217
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb082…30e0backed Yes | 43c | 563.9$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.6 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 44c | 433.59$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.99 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 349.14$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.45 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 16c | 346.4$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.18 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 298.24$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.28 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 41c | 265.1$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.93 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 263.12$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 36c | 249.93$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.96 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 14c | 237.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.77 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 35c | 218.2$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 33c | 207.06$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe68c…779dbacked Yes | 78c | 202$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -5.5wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 201.34$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.86 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 63c | 189.57$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 49c | 151.73$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 140.22$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.48 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 45c | 139.25$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.99 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 138.1$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.43 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 36c | 135.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.27 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 130.54$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 79c | 127.03$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 70c | 125$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 34c | 123.64$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.52 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 118.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 110.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 32c | 106.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.29 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 40c | 99.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 70c | 95.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 65c | 94.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 92.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 65c | 91.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.57 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 64c | 87.93$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 36c | 87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 36c | 83.49$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 37c | 81.04$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 76.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 70c | 71.88$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 63c | 71.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.59 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.1 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 74c | 69.02$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 36c | 66.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e0…c2cdbacked Yes | 32c | 63.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 78c | 62$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 67c | 60.12$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd561…d81dbacked Yes | 39c | 58.45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.72 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 64c | 55.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf483…3f62backed Yes | 25c | 54.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.71 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 23c | 50.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.49 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 60c | 50.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 33c | 49.96$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b86…0266backed Yes | 25c | 49.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +98.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa654…58c9backed Yes | 40c | 49.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked Yes | 27c | 49.49$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.91 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc900…a996backed Yes | 48c | 48.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.33 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54f…977cbacked No | 64c | 47.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x340b…fbbdbacked Yes | 33c | 45.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 36c | 45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 61c | 44.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 44.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 31c | 44$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 58c | 43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 36c | 42.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.42 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 47c | 42.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 50c | 42.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe768…10efbacked Yes | 39c | 42$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.74 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f40…5401backed Yes | 47c | 41.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 37c | 40.4$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.52 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.05 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 39c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 32c | 39.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed No | 63c | 39.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -4.6wins | -0.16per pick | 48cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 63c | 38.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 60c | 36.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a77…77c0backed No | 65c | 36.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 69cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 35c | 35.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…5154backed Yes | 77c | 35.89$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 35.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.93 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 63c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 65c | 31.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 40c | 31.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8506…5a06backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 37 | 56.8%21 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd2…b6dcbacked Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…2694backed No | 69c | 28.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc57a…5759backed Yes | 49c | 28.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ac6…e020backed Yes | 62c | 26.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.97 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 65c | 26.11$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.08 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 70c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed Yes | 78c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.