Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b2df36466dc28ba62259a0d837e00098233fa3bed042192f0becf9a87a1f749
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 349.32$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 11c | 341.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.09 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 6c | 305$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 23c | 291.54$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 32c | 271.08$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 47c | 269.08$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.51 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 14c | 223.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 13c | 215.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe272…ac63backed Yes | 36c | 210.03$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 205 | 34.1%70 W · 135 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 34c | 207.59$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.58 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 76c | 195.9$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.03 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 62c | 180.9$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 171.74$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 164.66$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.17 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 14c | 155.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 44c | 138.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.69 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 47c | 129.99$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.74 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 56c | 123.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.65 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263c…6114backed Yes | 43c | 117.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 151 | 33.8%51 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 47c | 111.48$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 108.46$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 107$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 99.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 40c | 87$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.93 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 30c | 84.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 33c | 83.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 42c | 82.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.84 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 63c | 69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.53 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf357…10b6backed Yes | 40c | 67.12$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 48c | 65.91$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 25c | 64.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 37c | 64.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 64$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.17 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 79c | 61.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 61.19$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.84 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed Yes | 42c | 57.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 76c | 56.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 31c | 44.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 39c | 39.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac1e…4cf3backed No | 59c | 35.56$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -77.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked Yes | 44c | 34.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…ab10backed Yes | 39c | 34.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…1929backed Yes | 44c | 34.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x241d…be08backed Yes | 31c | 32.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 37c | 30.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 66c | 30.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 35c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd2…b6dcbacked Yes | 35c | 29.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +82%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97d…7871backed No | 79c | 29.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 52c | 28.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03a…439fbacked No | 64c | 26.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 189 | 10.6%20 W · 169 L | -87.5wins | -0.46per pick | 57cpaid | -84%equal weight | 5-0.41 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 24.45$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 60c | 22.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 58c | 22.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f00…8169backed No | 63c | 21.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d37…0ef1backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 102 | 58.8%60 W · 42 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 65c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4650…8be6backed No | 69c | 14.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on March 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 10°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 11°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 5°C or below on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 6°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 7°C on March 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 8°C on March 28?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.