Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5204329d372e424d4b183dbad38df4a0f78d36a7dd613e5d8ef97b147443c0f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,806
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,806 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8bc0…12e6backed Yes | 39c | 1,329$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$809.39 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 70c | 853.42$597 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.17 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8809…6f4abacked Yes | 21c | 745.62$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.75 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +171.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 5c | 387.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…20c9backed Yes | 75c | 303.03$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 30c | 285.72$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 43c | 192.3$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.19 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf12…a273backed Yes | 17c | 150.43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.42per pick | 33cpaid | +217%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…72e4backed No | 31c | 131.28$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +128.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 52c | 99.97$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 30c | 81$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.62 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed No | 60c | 77$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 25c | 56.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d08…9eb8backed Yes | 79c | 51.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 27c | 49.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x91e8…5a81backed Yes | 33c | 37.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.67per pick | 33cpaid | +204.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 74c | 17.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%?this page
- Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.5%?No won
- Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be greater than or equal to 3.0%?No won
- Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.