Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x915192cfd5c3b027ba3628dcb109dd6f6ec1d4daad77be943557f05e76cb36eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,792
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,080
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,792 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3f1…6ca0backed No | 79c | 4,960$3,918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,041.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350a…7991backed Yes | 21c | 4,960$1,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,041.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes | 1c | 2,172$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 42c | 999.3$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.21 | 71 | 35.2%25 W · 46 L | +6.8wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 34c | 643.04$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.8 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 18c | 384.73$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.69 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…20c9backed No | 78c | 303.03$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc0…12e6backed No | 69c | 289.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.64 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 49c | 274.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.81 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 61c | 200$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 15c | 199.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 144.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.16per pick | 37cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe11a…c40bbacked No | 56c | 126.65$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.8 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 126.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed Yes | 53c | 107.22$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 36c | 99.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 309 | 18.1%56 W · 253 L | -29.6wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1aba…c083backed Yes | 46c | 99.88$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.47 | 133 | 38.3%51 W · 82 L | +15.6wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked Yes | 79c | 98.71$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe192…1e11backed Yes | 74c | 67.31$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 38c | 60.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.15 | 74 | 66.2%49 W · 25 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked No | 45c | 56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…5df5backed Yes | 45c | 54.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28cd…d99abacked No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 49.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…532dbacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 51c | 39.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked No | 55c | 39$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae01…0c40backed No | 47c | 27.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87f…4bb5backed Yes | 63c | 27.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…170fbacked No | 48c | 25.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5026…41a8backed No | 54c | 24.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xded2…d302backed Yes | 63c | 19.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe80…ba1abacked No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be less than or equal to 2.4%?this page
- Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.5%?No won
- Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be 2.6%?Yes won
- Will Mexico’s February unemployment rate be greater than or equal to 3.0%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.