Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x476b7f60b3518d565c833914fab1a4a080570a9333b0a4afc29b55915b2342af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked No | 5c | 1,544$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 52c | 1,427$746 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$746.42 | 3,139 | 49.6%1,558 W · 1,581 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 51c | 1,227$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.9 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 38c | 1,081$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.2 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 48c | 998$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.04 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 19c | 776.99$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 66c | 657.26$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.51 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked No | 12c | 639.39$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.26 | 631 | 22.5%142 W · 489 L | -29.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9c…6824backed No | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 48c | 576.33$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.05 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 58c | 541.68$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.15 | 2,506 | 69.7%1,747 W · 759 L | +78.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 55c | 529.74$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.4 | 1,866 | 25.4%474 W · 1,392 L | +134.7wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 70c | 516.7$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.51 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 35c | 405.91$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.06 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5a…77e5backed Yes | 52c | 385.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.06 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8d…038bbacked Yes | 75c | 378.71$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.53 | 303 | 69%209 W · 94 L | +28.9wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 50c | 359.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…a709backed Yes | 60c | 358.31$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.44 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 38c | 327.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 16c | 321.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 5c | 290.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 29c | 275.31$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.54 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 55c | 274.73$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.63 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 14c | 258.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 48c | 222.77$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.83 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0f…50bebacked Yes | 69c | 217.66$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.66 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 55c | 210.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.7 | 8,337 | 49.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L | +271.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 53c | 199.99$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 253 | 75.9%192 W · 61 L | +25.4wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 60c | 189.71$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.38 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf963…55e4backed Yes | 70c | 187.66$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 63c | 179.24$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.81 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 63c | 177.23$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.69 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 52c | 177.1$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.16 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf083…3428backed Yes | 47c | 174.65$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.3 | 41 | 26.8%11 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +60.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 59c | 163$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.82 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 51c | 163$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.53 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…a151backed Yes | 41c | 157.43$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +118.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x316c…0194backed Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +6.1wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed No | 53c | 147.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 49c | 142.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…593fbacked Yes | 69c | 137$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…3173backed No | 29c | 135.46$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.94 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 65c | 133.43$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.63 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 132.55$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.63 | 7,233 | 9.3%675 W · 6,558 L | -1,116.1wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…a5cabacked Yes | 47c | 127.97$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 60c | 125.43$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.45 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 13c | 115.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 23c | 109.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4958…16a4backed Yes | 48c | 105.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 52c | 104.96$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 39c | 93.85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9336…cd98backed Yes | 50c | 90.32$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 48c | 90.3$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b83…4687backed No | 44c | 85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 52c | 85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 58c | 82.88$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 880 | 48%422 W · 458 L | +41.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687a…4e6bbacked Yes | 44c | 79.66$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5580…8029backed Yes | 56c | 71.72$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.6 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 40c | 61.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 44c | 60.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 296 | 28.4%84 W · 212 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 57c | 58.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 52c | 58.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.98 | 4,032 | 35.6%1,436 W · 2,596 L | +42.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 31c | 57.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb4…692abacked Yes | 45c | 54.95$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a10…b874backed No | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 41c | 52.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1230…8e43backed No | 49c | 51.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 151 | 55.6%84 W · 67 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe549…a14ebacked No | 58c | 48.62$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 71cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…8f52backed No | 30c | 48.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 50c | 48.29$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d4…0a37backed Yes | 60c | 46.36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 62cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 43c | 46.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc33…9636backed No | 55c | 45.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 55c | 45.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,658 | 27.7%460 W · 1,198 L | +119.2wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 24c | 45.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3e…5a65backed Yes | 57c | 44.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 55c | 43.05$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 63c | 43.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed No | 60c | 41.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec25…dec6backed Yes | 56c | 41.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 111 | 72.1%80 W · 31 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x368c…e8d5backed No | 28c | 40.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf1…c28cbacked No | 55c | 39.71$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 38c | 39.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 50c | 37.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 134 | 24.6%33 W · 101 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 31c | 36.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eff…f370backed No | 56c | 35.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 71cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28b3…7af3backed Yes | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 58c | 33.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2318…bbbfbacked Yes | 41c | 31.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.71 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb099…df6cbacked Yes | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…84d5backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 97 | 78.4%76 W · 21 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b63…61f3backed Yes | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd30f…d81cbacked Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C or higher on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C or below on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.