World Politics · resolved market
Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf859455dc8b1fe84b3e1d49557451854dabe2744b0b17d1846b10883b68b9fcc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $199,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $199,989 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf595…ae41backed Yes | 4c | 5,186$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…7dd0backed Yes | 4c | 3,617$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3b…5638backed Yes | 5c | 3,516$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…210abacked Yes | 4c | 3,320$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…ea93backed Yes | 4c | 2,845$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa809…f7e9backed Yes | 5c | 2,531$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.67 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2427…807dbacked Yes | 5c | 2,396$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de9…9dcbbacked Yes | 5c | 2,389$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…faa2backed Yes | 5c | 2,313$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1205…50aabacked Yes | 3c | 2,274$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d08…f210backed Yes | 5c | 2,159$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x248a…d5bfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,114$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.03 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e09…8898backed Yes | 5c | 2,035$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf36e…0f3cbacked Yes | 4c | 2,022$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…2771backed Yes | 5c | 1,885$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2d…9b33backed Yes | 5c | 1,860$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 1,754$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.76 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0944…3018backed Yes | 2c | 1,746$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…bdccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,692$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4202…1bb0backed Yes | 5c | 1,663$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc1b…e82fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,585$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1e…d1acbacked Yes | 6c | 1,574$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc23…8a66backed Yes | 6c | 1,556$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 3c | 1,417$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60eb…7a4abacked Yes | 4c | 1,390$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…f378backed Yes | 4c | 1,359$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…288dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,279$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb7…f2a6backed Yes | 5c | 1,276$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.63 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76e9…6cb9backed Yes | 5c | 1,237$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaea…4b01backed Yes | 6c | 1,201$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a39…3a9dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,185$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…b2e3backed Yes | 5c | 1,185$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab9b…72febacked Yes | 5c | 1,170$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa1…668bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.02 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d9…cd6fbacked Yes | 5c | 917$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 916.43$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…17d0backed Yes | 4c | 862$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d35…119dbacked Yes | 4c | 837$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3caf…cfebbacked Yes | 5c | 812$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 3c | 809.97$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5c…0e43backed Yes | 5c | 797$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3100…2014backed Yes | 5c | 791$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb4…9f05backed Yes | 5c | 757$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd728…0a95backed Yes | 5c | 725$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x747c…fe9fbacked Yes | 4c | 662$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x007d…97b9backed Yes | 5c | 625$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 592.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x812b…0bf4backed Yes | 4c | 582$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…77bebacked Yes | 5c | 549.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x456e…b976backed Yes | 5c | 545$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d9…7438backed Yes | 5c | 516$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa428…18cfbacked Yes | 5c | 490$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…4eaebacked Yes | 4c | 405$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf6…babcbacked Yes | 5c | 389$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8da7…6572backed Yes | 4c | 383$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d57…4e54backed Yes | 5c | 382$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a8…59b0backed Yes | 3c | 356.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c32…f79bbacked Yes | 5c | 348$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3513…b52fbacked Yes | 4c | 340.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…6872backed Yes | 5c | 338$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c5…cb85backed Yes | 5c | 314$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…45f0backed Yes | 17c | 291.07$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d2…5033backed Yes | 5c | 290$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 6c | 246.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 55 | 12.7%7 W · 48 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…1c08backed Yes | 7c | 235.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…bffdbacked Yes | 5c | 223$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad6f…f8eabacked Yes | 5c | 189$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 8c | 125.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc961…b544backed Yes | 9c | 114.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fa…2d35backed Yes | 21c | 88.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 12c | 82.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa9b…6dcebacked Yes | 35c | 56.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 79c | 24.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?this page
- Will Alejandro Reyes win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Iván Arias win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Miguel Roca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Paul Coca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Rodrigo Rivera win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Waldo Albarracín win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Óscar Sogliano win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.