TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Miguel Roca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$700,743

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $700,743 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x86b0…be19backed Yes12c5,097$612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.6410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ac6…d977backed Yes9c4,952$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66d8…b0d7backed Yes8c4,161$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Yes5c4,128$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.751020%2 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c36…5e26backed Yes8c3,947$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes8c3,787$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.866883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ab…bf17backed Yes9c3,455$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.77425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick5cpaid+987%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6088…5adebacked Yes9c3,351$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd299…b988backed Yes7c3,291$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.53425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+410.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed5e…326fbacked Yes9c3,079$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb89c…7cc7backed Yes9c2,945$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2036…7640backed Yes9c2,867$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.6330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x46e7…ca93backed Yes8c2,807$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffbf…c5c6backed Yes8c2,771$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.1930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb142…2239backed Yes6c2,698$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfaa…8ec7backed Yes9c2,669$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6da9…1b25backed Yes9c2,646$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x89ee…b1a8backed Yes9c2,587$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb140…8641backed Yes9c2,573$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa36c…c92bbacked Yes9c2,540$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x30da…5b6abacked Yes7c2,509$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x197e…c5abbacked Yes9c2,444$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dc4…0e47backed Yes9c2,412$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d49…2e1dbacked Yes8c2,391$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3055…da74backed Yes9c2,388$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a85…6adbbacked Yes8c2,382$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4186…fd45backed Yes10c2,292$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x809a…ec60backed Yes9c2,231$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16f3…e9cabacked Yes9c2,223$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fb…8750backed Yes7c2,164$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef2…24a6backed Yes10c2,132$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f9…be19backed Yes8c2,122$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c9d…cdf7backed Yes9c2,059$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f2…8d90backed Yes9c2,047$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8008…f88dbacked Yes9c2,026$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc14…95e1backed Yes9c1,933$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x387d…a7b9backed Yes8c1,905$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1025…f812backed Yes8c1,889$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f66…88d8backed Yes8c1,880$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccfc…1b27backed Yes8c1,831$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58d2…cd9abacked Yes10c1,796$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2663…bb3ebacked Yes6c1,794$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99cf…e4e0backed Yes10c1,786$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.4620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9edb…8e28backed Yes9c1,775$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8488…be04backed Yes8c1,747$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01bb…f429backed Yes9c1,737$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ca0…c87abacked Yes7c1,723$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8402…2de1backed Yes9c1,718$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99b1…2f62backed Yes8c1,686$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.8830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x312d…1a65backed Yes10c1,628$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad6c…671fbacked Yes6c1,625$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…c09dbacked Yes10c1,617$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3567…9d55backed Yes9c1,608$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe686…832bbacked Yes9c1,601$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21e2…20f1backed Yes8c1,601$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.4840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b1…97cdbacked Yes10c1,568$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…7918backed Yes9c1,565$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08ba…76babacked Yes9c1,547$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e81…3decbacked Yes9c1,542$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.9530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc461…479dbacked Yes8c1,539$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.1230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb145…3e70backed Yes8c1,532$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c1,519$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.881,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd320…1c61backed Yes9c1,514$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfae5…4e2cbacked Yes9c1,508$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.2440%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1eef…e73cbacked Yes7c1,497$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fb3…68e4backed Yes10c1,470$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb80d…2bc8backed Yes9c1,462$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.5820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58d8…0473backed Yes8c1,459$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb715…6e2dbacked Yes7c1,451$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f06…8677backed Yes8c1,446$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb461…c9e0backed Yes9c1,445$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.8310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc6f…4102backed Yes8c1,437$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe624…04a3backed Yes8c1,427$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52bf…840fbacked Yes7c1,415$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb503…7e9bbacked Yes8c1,414$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x100a…b850backed Yes8c1,403$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b5…f960backed Yes9c1,397$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe8db…b622backed Yes10c1,384$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.2530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aec…ff50backed Yes10c1,362$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.9230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd5…efdebacked Yes10c1,361$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce5…fe22backed Yes8c1,337$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fa1…71b6backed Yes9c1,323$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfc…611abacked Yes10c1,298$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085a…55aabacked Yes9c1,289$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.5910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c4e…a573backed Yes9c1,266$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.2630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcef…19bcbacked Yes8c1,264$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3e8…cf6fbacked Yes8c1,256$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2905…2affbacked Yes9c1,253$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c0…3b4ebacked Yes9c1,241$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9743…8375backed Yes9c1,233$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5147…ff48backed Yes10c1,233$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5d…a7f9backed Yes9c1,216$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b1c…fe97backed Yes9c1,203$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.68333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick5cpaid+1,349.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb917…e6f2backed Yes9c1,203$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27e6…b7a4backed Yes10c1,202$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b68…95efbacked Yes9c1,201$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x572b…be9ebacked Yes9c1,185$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7e72…bd6fbacked Yes10c1,185$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d5f…fbb0backed Yes9c1,176$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12b1…4828backed Yes7c1,170$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.