World Politics · resolved market
Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb072ff683b128a7b8cdcc2217b77b3af6f92dfe78fcae4194b6c1646beb17f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,456 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 3c | 4,114$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.28 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 3c | 848.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 752.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 621.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 150 | 14%21 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091a…77bebacked Yes | 9c | 599.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 498.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x647c…bb4abacked Yes | 7c | 420.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1238…c94abacked Yes | 4c | 413$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c26…eb5dbacked Yes | 4c | 413$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7080…1f47backed Yes | 4c | 409$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a82…13cfbacked Yes | 4c | 409$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca0…45f0backed Yes | 17c | 300.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fa…2d35backed Yes | 11c | 120.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?this page
- Will Alejandro Reyes win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Iván Arias win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Miguel Roca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Paul Coca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Rodrigo Rivera win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Waldo Albarracín win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Óscar Sogliano win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.