World Politics · resolved market
Will Iván Arias win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfed46bb3bf5d047635b71980aaf62f9f75596d19ef7d2435139f392baa0fda1d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $80,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,106 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd64e…5516backed Yes | 3c | 3,354$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.52 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a6…429abacked Yes | 5c | 2,171$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 2c | 1,950$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4750…e7d6backed Yes | 5c | 1,878$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +223.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x613e…c5f8backed Yes | 5c | 1,828$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dff…7f3fbacked Yes | 5c | 1,810$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.07 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 8cpaid | +212.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3254…5219backed Yes | 5c | 1,715$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 4cpaid | +671.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0443…99cfbacked Yes | 5c | 1,579$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +383.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc7d…10febacked Yes | 5c | 1,566$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3587…9981backed Yes | 5c | 1,430$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +589.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…04a3backed Yes | 5c | 1,305$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,241$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa63d…cbc2backed Yes | 5c | 1,225$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e35…34d2backed Yes | 3c | 1,152$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…b810backed Yes | 3c | 1,150$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…2499backed Yes | 3c | 1,103$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x170c…bde5backed Yes | 5c | 1,084$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ef…9debbacked Yes | 5c | 1,058$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 4cpaid | +1,090.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6be0…c193backed Yes | 5c | 948$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.61 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f65…3924backed Yes | 5c | 932$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 6cpaid | +220.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 925.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a3…ced2backed Yes | 5c | 916$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cc8…e8a8backed Yes | 3c | 911$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e48…cbd8backed Yes | 3c | 875$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4d…3ab8backed Yes | 5c | 797$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0df…dd8dbacked Yes | 5c | 756$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4004…0972backed Yes | 3c | 712$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 11cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a01…8286backed Yes | 5c | 710$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 669.92$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…e0d2backed Yes | 4c | 637.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…6864backed Yes | 3c | 533$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…f7e2backed Yes | 5c | 531$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff47…db5ebacked Yes | 3c | 491$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 7cpaid | +262.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb85…bf3ebacked Yes | 2c | 485.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 6c | 282.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b60…f9eabacked No | 60c | 215.27$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4a…3d72backed Yes | 5c | 215$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +640.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 207.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.72 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x26c6…e145backed Yes | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 37cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa585…9e84backed Yes | 5c | 194.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Iván Arias win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?this page
- Will Alejandro Reyes win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will César Dockweiler win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?Yes won
- Will Jhonny Plata win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Miguel Roca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Paul Coca win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Rodrigo Rivera win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Waldo Albarracín win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Xavier Iturralde win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
- Will Óscar Sogliano win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.