TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Carlos Eduardo Palenque win the 2026 La Paz mayoral election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$262,610

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $262,610 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x23cb…3213backed Yes3c5,085$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x613e…c5f8backed Yes2c3,371$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c2,945$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.196883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd64e…5516backed Yes2c2,640$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.933636.1%13 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-43.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x504b…9294backed Yes2c2,423$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d6f…c25bbacked Yes3c2,412$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1646…5e23backed Yes3c2,409$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4186…fd45backed Yes3c2,343$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.9220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5c3c…ea50backed Yes1c2,318$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42110%0 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05ab…f652backed Yes3c2,299$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a85…6adbbacked Yes3c2,288$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x689b…dc54backed Yes3c2,188$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1609…ed5abacked Yes3c2,179$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72dc…c790backed Yes2c2,134$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c16…738abacked Yes3c2,113$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6088…5adebacked Yes3c2,088$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20b3…e1f7backed Yes3c1,976$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x465a…8aacbacked Yes2c1,914$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.45333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick3cpaid+557.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd028…5aecbacked Yes3c1,902$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8240%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4162…31eebacked Yes3c1,901$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3055…da74backed Yes3c1,887$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8891…71f8backed Yes3c1,886$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.7110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,785$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.091,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33f1…a493backed Yes2c1,785$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cd4…3135backed Yes3c1,726$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0208…7c2abacked Yes3c1,668$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9529…923cbacked Yes3c1,570$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.0540%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd658…7497backed Yes3c1,519$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefbd…4285backed Yes3c1,500$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf1b9…00bbbacked Yes3c1,421$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd538…ca67backed Yes2c1,392$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bf9…f10fbacked Yes3c1,366$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d5f…fbb0backed Yes2c1,321$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.750%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb50…4f22backed Yes3c1,271$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a66…a3acbacked Yes3c1,260$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe306…7ffdbacked Yes2c1,253$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d75…44fabacked Yes3c1,251$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4efe…0218backed Yes4c1,249$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.09520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.13per pick7cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf57…5430backed Yes2c1,234$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6260%0 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x91be…dbd5backed Yes3c1,197$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb81…d4d3backed Yes3c1,100$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4491…5fb1backed Yes2c1,052$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+624.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3580…53c3backed Yes3c1,049$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4700…3575backed Yes3c1,004$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes2c1,000$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.534117.1%7 W · 34 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-62.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdef2…7877backed Yes4c950$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38450%2 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick5cpaid+735.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31e2…eb76backed Yes2c948$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2beb…066ebacked Yes2c944$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1339…3c5dbacked Yes3c906$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe13c…30b7backed Yes3c904$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa0d…3855backed Yes2c903$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.06366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.61per pick6cpaid+1,014.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c42…33bebacked Yes3c903$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c68…fafebacked Yes4c870$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…5341backed Yes4c860$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.440%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5c39…aa0cbacked Yes4c849$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.6620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc9ea…2ce8backed Yes2c783$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1861…24eabacked Yes2c771$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…12c0backed Yes4c755$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7258…f825backed Yes2c753$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b34…c607backed Yes2c743$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x573e…3324backed Yes4c743$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x882c…9466backed Yes3c736$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee96…5c94backed Yes4c704$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.57250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.46per pick4cpaid+1,090.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3309…af1ebacked Yes3c696$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba38…bcc7backed Yes4c693$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7240%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc6…51e5backed Yes4c691$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x863e…1424backed Yes3c681$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d97…d3a9backed Yes4c671$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b11…6230backed Yes3c651$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.23333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick4cpaid+640.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4e7…b3d4backed Yes3c644$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.7430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…9c76backed Yes3c634$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x492a…1754backed Yes4c616$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc723…c564backed Yes4c594$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick12cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1da4…07abbacked Yes4c590$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick6cpaid+363%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8318…9f38backed Yes3c576$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe892…5cabbacked Yes4c574$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.11333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick13cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x501d…20d8backed Yes4c563$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6530%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x132d…ca43backed Yes3c561$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d89…cb0cbacked Yes4c560$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x109e…0d79backed Yes3c559$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x111f…ea7bbacked Yes4c529$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a89…7e3cbacked Yes4c527$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a95…d39fbacked Yes3c456$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a67…a192backed Yes4c358.22$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.