Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf39d939e07fb201329e25741c8f0ca61f7088e0401b606cd8d2fdb2dbe74a1c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,082
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 14c | 1,239$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9715…6f82backed Yes | 60c | 512.33$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.53 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 52c | 390.44$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 60c | 321.89$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.18 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked Yes | 66c | 296.59$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8c…2c71backed Yes | 7c | 285.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -6.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 226.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 202.97$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.78 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 196.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x305d…88e2backed Yes | 55c | 190.8$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 44c | 182.18$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.5 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 72c | 172.05$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 66c | 169.71$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.26 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 62c | 167.68$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.43 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 53c | 157.86$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.86 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 34c | 157.8$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed No | 62c | 156.61$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 152.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.62 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 35c | 144.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 29c | 132.39$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 77c | 131.92$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.94 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 25c | 128.2$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 39c | 119.57$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 43c | 118.96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.32 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca35…2440backed No | 64c | 118.75$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.36 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f1…6aa4backed No | 59c | 109.84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.68 | 31 | 67.7%21 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 109.51$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 79c | 108.76$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.32 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4c…444cbacked Yes | 63c | 104.07$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 34c | 101.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 57c | 101.11$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 22c | 81.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…623bbacked No | 38c | 77.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.18 | 268 | 28.7%77 W · 191 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed No | 39c | 77.28$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.14 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 69c | 76$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbc2…e280backed Yes | 66c | 75.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 45c | 70.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 52c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.47 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 76c | 69.67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 28c | 63.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 62.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed No | 65c | 61$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 22c | 56.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 61c | 54.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 29c | 53.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 45c | 52.86$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe224…2e1dbacked Yes | 44c | 51.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 54c | 51.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 60c | 50.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.28 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfd…0427backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79c7…8f51backed Yes | 24c | 45.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Yes | 63c | 45.74$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 43.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 62c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebda…75a9backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 217 | 22.6%49 W · 168 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5a6…703dbacked Yes | 69c | 39.74$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.39 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 39.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x710d…02aabacked Yes | 53c | 35.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 340 | 67.4%229 W · 111 L | +24.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 73c | 35.23$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.51 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 61c | 33.77$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 69c | 31.71$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3837…c507backed Yes | 49c | 30.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 104 | 44.2%46 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 44c | 28.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c0a…0a1abacked Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…4108backed Yes | 69c | 24.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 21.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 64c | 19.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 76c | 18.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 66c | 16.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 16.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c2…d561backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…cf4bbacked No | 70c | 14.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.39 | 100 | 58%58 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1475…ed52backed No | 80c | 13.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x963b…273dbacked No | 74c | 13.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 76cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.