Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa3996983e1c1007ff5f15ed04da3bdf7871b32a5af8209c48ff60476109e3073
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,664
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 29c | 867.32$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.56 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 11c | 440.75$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.18 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 8c | 391.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 261.08$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.2 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 231.49$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked Yes | 9c | 231.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dff…bb1ebacked Yes | 10c | 231.23$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6077…8a56backed Yes | 45c | 221.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 56.9%62 W · 47 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 17c | 159.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 30c | 154.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.99 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 29c | 149.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.55 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 71c | 143.84$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e3…2e82backed Yes | 37c | 136.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 30cpaid | -32%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 129.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.1 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 31c | 112.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 70c | 108.33$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 17c | 105.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 14c | 105.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf77b…42e9backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.19per pick | 57cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 90.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 17c | 86.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…d802backed Yes | 28c | 80.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2205…8089backed No | 71c | 79.41$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.41 | 290 | 56.2%163 W · 127 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 77.63$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1900…d545backed Yes | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 34c | 73.01$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed No | 68c | 71.76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 37c | 69.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f08…73a8backed No | 69c | 62.51$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.38 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x174c…4351backed Yes | 28c | 52.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…7057backed No | 67c | 52.86$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.44 | 192 | 59.9%115 W · 77 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7d…305ebacked No | 68c | 50.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked Yes | 29c | 50.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 32c | 49.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked No | 69c | 47.21$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6987…846bbacked Yes | 33c | 44.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 31c | 41.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74ea…b265backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 211 | 42.7%90 W · 121 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bed…b648backed Yes | 34c | 36.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…4e40backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 72c | 33.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb9…58bebacked No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 20.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…587ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 69c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa791…c0d2backed No | 71c | 18.73$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 18.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 69c | 17.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 17.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 67c | 16.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 72c | 15.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…010bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on March 26?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.