Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0348978acf11d36a941541ed42f1d4f7f8efc8c96e11109c0bd96a735550b6d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,473
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,473 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 7c | 2,751$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa894…53dabacked Yes | 21c | 1,912$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +216.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 19c | 1,653$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,346.6 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 17c | 844.79$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.41 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…b4a9backed Yes | 22c | 454.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 399.98$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.99 | 199 | 31.7%63 W · 136 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 73c | 395.1$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.21 | 20 | 100%20 W · 0 L | +5.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc3…fce2backed No | 15c | 375.39$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…3558backed Yes | 30c | 356.5$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +231.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 79c | 268.56$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.6 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c2…55d6backed No | 77c | 238.01$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.27 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 67cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 26c | 229.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2783…8321backed No | 74c | 200$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x640f…4cc0backed Yes | 71c | 150$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…3e50backed Yes | 20c | 148.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 71c | 125.82$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.33 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 16c | 122.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.06 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked Yes | 16c | 115.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.38 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 107.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.28 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 107.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.57 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c07…1bb5backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 29c | 97.49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.08 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 71c | 83.89$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.26 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 78.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.37 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…208bbacked Yes | 29c | 77.09$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa575…f2d0backed No | 72c | 61.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19d0…892ebacked No | 74c | 61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 76c | 53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -55%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes | 30c | 52.11$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.48 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9691…ff48backed Yes | 21c | 48$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8c…ad4bbacked Yes | 24c | 44.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +82.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 40.88$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.3 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 61c | 32.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 79c | 32.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1016…c866backed No | 75c | 32.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 68c | 23.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f5…b476backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8f…8bbabacked Yes | 73c | 17.84$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +71.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe0…192abacked No | 80c | 16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x127a…3344backed Yes | 74c | 14.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?this page
- Will the US add at least 175k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 125k and 150k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 150k and 175k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in February?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.