Macro Indicators · resolved market
Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in February?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1e303f6f6d3aeab2203db4698f3d75b3b4de99252d1f601c8a2508a92be07c34
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Macro Indicatorsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,511 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Macro Indicators is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed No | 77c | 4,726$3,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.07 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be1…3feabacked Yes | 1c | 2,800$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 27c | 2,467$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.02 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 17c | 1,822$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.25 | 233 | 30.5%71 W · 162 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1a…6bccbacked Yes | 17c | 699.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.59 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5be9…9106backed No | 78c | 500$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…b875backed Yes | 16c | 350.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 21c | 331.41$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95bd…b9bebacked No | 80c | 248.63$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ffc…8236backed Yes | 23c | 228.46$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.95 | 224 | 33.9%76 W · 148 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +69%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcae…26a0backed Yes | 24c | 193.92$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 176.26$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.93 | 299 | 13.7%41 W · 258 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 18c | 171.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 175 | 28%49 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bf…e70fbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0167…8ebfbacked Yes | 20c | 126.66$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a89…adebbacked Yes | 24c | 126.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 78c | 107.87$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 17c | 107.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 17c | 105.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34a1…0847backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4fd…b717backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a45…4eecbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…ce76backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 76c | 85.15$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.49 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 75c | 79.07$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 21c | 76.18$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x440e…4907backed No | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 24c | 72.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8828…3e50backed Yes | 31c | 71.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 20c | 70$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…6695backed Yes | 22c | 68.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc30…d3febacked Yes | 22c | 68$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb067…c53fbacked Yes | 22c | 67.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 202 | 42.1%85 W · 117 L | -13.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe23d…93a4backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc910…34d0backed Yes | 23c | 42.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 79c | 34.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 80c | 30.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 24.62$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 151 | 48.3%73 W · 78 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Macro Indicators and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the US add between 50k and 75k jobs in February?this page
- Will the US add at least 175k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 100k and 125k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 125k and 150k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 150k and 175k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 25k and 50k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add between 75k and 100k jobs in February?No won
- Will the US add less than 25k jobs in February?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.