Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8e93f79a95df3b33f059ab07e9616f419753b5bc2a2b40808e9457b97320c32
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,360 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 2c | 4,511$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.03 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 1c | 3,071$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 10c | 3,016$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,703.77 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4dd…04afbacked No | 7c | 1,281$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x522c…9290backed No | 4c | 842.86$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 797.53$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.25 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 3c | 773.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.8 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdf…eab9backed Yes | 53c | 567.3$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.14 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03bf…475cbacked Yes | 5c | 388.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +547.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 10c | 369.35$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.72 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 6c | 299.45$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.15 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 21c | 295.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.32 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed Yes | 16c | 272.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.41 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 15c | 271.48$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.97 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3825…6582backed No | 7c | 265.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 262.22$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 44c | 259.19$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.39 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 23c | 259.12$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.97 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…1f0abacked No | 5c | 256.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 27c | 249.84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.44 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 58c | 249$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.4 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 6c | 203$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.88 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed No | 57c | 200$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.63 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 10c | 199.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.24 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 42c | 190.46$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 50c | 186.66$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.44 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b5…1bfebacked No | 8c | 184.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 7c | 184.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.54 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 71c | 172.91$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.11 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 17c | 160.14$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.53 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 8c | 154.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.8 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 12c | 127.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 119.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 47c | 111.5$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 23c | 101.3$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 80c | 96$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.36 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…2e20backed Yes | 16c | 95.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 72c | 87.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.78 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed Yes | 60c | 81.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.19 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 65c | 77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…b1fcbacked Yes | 20c | 75.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.88 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 21c | 73.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.58 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 68c | 72.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 103 | 52.4%54 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 29c | 61.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 64c | 59.29$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 20c | 57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 57c | 54.75$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…2291backed Yes | 22c | 46.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.95 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +153.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 75c | 40.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 29c | 36.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 75c | 32.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 35c | 29.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 80c | 28.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0011…fc7ebacked Yes | 67c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | +42%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…d474backed No | 69c | 14.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 166 | 39.2%65 W · 101 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.