Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1740d0a525a513f671dc36ed606545d0d24f066439e1af3e7197db8bdd690459
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,553
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,553 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb94…6757backed Yes | 1c | 11,400$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.87 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 2,089$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.12 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb84…4fbcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,468$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 800.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.87 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 4c | 779.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.83 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 32c | 770.82$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.8 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 4c | 677.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 4c | 551.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 514.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 2c | 454.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 9c | 443.51$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.77 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 14c | 368.45$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 53c | 303.76$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 22c | 290.92$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.7 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93a4…b7a3backed Yes | 40c | 284.9$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.73 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 265.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 60c | 218.23$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.23 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdf…eab9backed No | 46c | 216.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.2 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 80c | 191$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed Yes | 57c | 180$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 8c | 156.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 76c | 135.29$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 13c | 129.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.22 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 22c | 122.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 121.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.77 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 18c | 119.75$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 113.33$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed No | 53c | 112.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.39 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 30c | 111.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 24c | 105.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 19c | 105.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 24c | 104.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 22c | 100.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c1…b52abacked Yes | 20c | 99.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…2b4abacked Yes | 14c | 99.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 149 | 15.4%23 W · 126 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 26c | 98.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x198b…9973backed Yes | 14c | 82.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 26c | 76.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0eb…a7d8backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 58 | 74.1%43 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 29c | 56.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 32c | 54.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x522c…9290backed Yes | 23c | 51.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…58cebacked No | 79c | 50.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.43 | 22 | 86.4%19 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 40c | 49.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0057…b1c7backed Yes | 25c | 43.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 148 | 26.4%39 W · 109 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 31c | 43.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb71b…cb2fbacked Yes | 25c | 42.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -85.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa0…cee9backed Yes | 48c | 41.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 69c | 37.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 59c | 35.97$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 80c | 35.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 79c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 77c | 29.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 53c | 26.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de1…5301backed No | 77c | 26.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 69 | 85.5%59 W · 10 L | +10.0wins | +0.14per pick | 71cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 78c | 22.01$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 21.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 77c | 19.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ef…9808backed No | 79c | 17.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 92 | 77.2%71 W · 21 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd41f…bb32backed No | 76c | 13.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.32 | 32 | 75%24 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b6c…d8cdbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.76 | 73 | 75.3%55 W · 18 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.