Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6ee8e148ed2c0f025d712acf9fe993fbb53919ee8cdad3c08edcd9a5325eb3ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,353
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,353 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,677$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 823.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 23c | 469.96$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.24 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 331.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 346 | 17.9%62 W · 284 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 4c | 327.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 3c | 319.84$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 316.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.57 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 308.45$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 246.96$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 14c | 209.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 208.78$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 196.65$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 31c | 160.87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 11c | 141.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 75c | 118.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.68 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 12c | 110.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 74c | 104.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.43 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c1b…a999backed No | 76c | 91.93$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.09 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 29c | 91.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.47 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5535…ce00backed Yes | 24c | 84.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed No | 64c | 81.66$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.75 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…f7edbacked No | 72c | 81.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.99 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 22c | 80.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 76c | 80.12$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.39 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 17c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 28c | 77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.56 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 15c | 76.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 23c | 71.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 67.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 25c | 58.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…8588backed Yes | 23c | 51.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 24c | 51.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 35c | 44.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 77c | 34.86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 62c | 33.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 73c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x323a…56f0backed No | 80c | 31.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e00…92a2backed No | 80c | 30.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 77c | 21.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7670…43b9backed No | 69c | 20.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 73c | 19.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 18.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dbb…c0abbacked No | 74c | 17.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 95 | 51.6%49 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…8043backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…bc9bbacked No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.05 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.