Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb2f31f7debc9186727c4ec6feb07b2679b00e57a553b40ba21aebaa76ea45e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,831 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,259$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 4c | 808.57$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 729$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e6…4cdbbacked Yes | 18c | 352.5$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 19c | 315.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 31c | 223.07$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 48c | 212.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.9 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 211.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 45c | 208.48$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.34 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…9236backed Yes | 41c | 195.91$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.07 | 354 | 32.5%115 W · 239 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 55c | 191.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.19 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 181.63$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 169.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.02 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdf…eab9backed No | 58c | 167.92$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.21 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa742…5bd4backed No | 56c | 166.26$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 163.76$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.54 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 148.14$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 59c | 134.88$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.56 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 57c | 119.63$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 66c | 107.41$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6230…6debbacked Yes | 44c | 105$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.47 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4416…b6ecbacked Yes | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 45c | 94.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 32c | 93.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 55c | 93$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.9 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf36…ffb0backed Yes | 30c | 80.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 159 | 39%62 W · 97 L | +14.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +28%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…67cebacked Yes | 53c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.6 | 111 | 28.8%32 W · 79 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 20c | 79.79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 46c | 77.01$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.46 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf64a…db74backed Yes | 53c | 75.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 333 | 49.8%166 W · 167 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 73.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 70.5$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.12 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 68.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 68.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.61 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 61c | 65.04$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Yes | 39c | 52.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d92…4eb8backed No | 54c | 50.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb941…1619backed No | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 56c | 49.26$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 60c | 48$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 47c | 47.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 57c | 45.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 44c | 45.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a39…acc7backed No | 54c | 43.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71b3…4ddebacked No | 62c | 42.76$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 46c | 41.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 72c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…0f11backed Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 70c | 40.29$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed No | 54c | 38.33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.63 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 58c | 37.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 43c | 37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0642…4a9ebacked Yes | 40c | 32.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe164…acfebacked No | 74c | 32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.32 | 80 | 76.3%61 W · 19 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a3…09cdbacked Yes | 44c | 31.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2be…4a4cbacked Yes | 47c | 31.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 31.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…6ba1backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf81…0bc0backed No | 63c | 28.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 43c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6160…fdfcbacked No | 45c | 27.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +5.3wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 61c | 26.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…41dfbacked No | 55c | 26.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xed0f…b307backed No | 56c | 19.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked No | 70c | 17.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C on March 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 23?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 22°C on March 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.